Summer 2025’s Texas Housing Market Shift: What Realtors Need to Know Now

Mike Mills00:00:00

So let's review in case you missed it, Housing's broken, debt is exploding, inspectors are becoming iPads, credit scores are becoming feelings and aliens apparently just vibing with us since the pyramids. It's Mike's mind where the economy's upside down, headlines are sideways, and reality is probably a simulation anyway.Mortgage rates are bouncing, Austin home prices are tripping over themselves, and somewhere in your CRM is a lead that you forgotten about and just listed with your competitor. Welcome to the summer of 2025. My name is Mike Mills.I'm a local North Texas mortgage banker with Service First Mortgage here again with your real estate market update for the week of July 7th.In case you didn't know, this show is for realtors, lenders and anyone trying to survive in the Texas market without throwing their phone into a pile of unread Zillow alerts. We break down rates, trends, tech, and the occasional alien headline so you're always one step ahead of the chaos.All right, let's get while the mortgage rates are doing the cha cha again. They're down, they're up, and just confusing enough to kill your lock confidence.Then we head to Austin where the housing market is cooler than a topo chico at Barton Springs, but sellers are still living in 2022. And then everybody's favorite segment, Mike's Mine is back.And this week it's full of student loans, alien rocks, Klarna credit scores and Bitcoin backed home deals. No, seriously.And for our AI tool of the week, we're digging into Fellow, the platform that turns your forgotten contacts into actual closing and might just be smarter than your CRM and your 14. It's another week in the wild world of Texas real estate. So let's get into it before the Fed starts gaslighting us again.But real quick, before we get into it, it's that part of the show where I pretend that I'm totally comfortable asking for business, even though honestly, I'd rather wrestle underwriting guidelines and self promote. But here we are. So if you're a buyer or an agent who wants a lender that actually answers their phone and explains things in English, I'm your guy.No scripts, no smoke, just straight up lending advice with a human on the other end. Usually me. Usually my AI clone. Just kidding. All my contact info's in the show notes.Or just message me like it's 2007 and we're still pretending email is cool.And oh by the way, if you're like the podcast, it'd mean the world to me if you'd leave a review, share it, or shout it out from the metaphorical rooftop. I'm a one man media department over here and the algorithm is hungry. All right, plug over. Let's get back to the chaos. First up, yes, mortgage rates.The thing that I get asked more than is AI going to take your job, Mike? So here we go. Hey, Mike, what are the rates? Well, buckle up. Today's rates are more mixed than conspiracy theories about the Fed and Roswell.So according to Mortgage News daily, as of July 3, 2025, the 30 year fixed conventional mortgage rate is around 6.75, the 15 year conventional mortgage rate is about 5.98, the 30 year FHA rate is about 6.27, the 30 year VA rate is about 6.29, and the 30 year jumbo is sitting around 6.875. Now, to be clear, these are average market rate index numbers for Mortgage News Daily and may not reflect the specific rates that you qualify for.Mortgage rates vary wildly depending on your credit score, loan type, down payment, and more. So talk to a licensed mortgage professional like myself or your local lender here.We are CFPB compliant, although I don't think it matters much these days because I think there's like five guys working there. But either way, there you go. So after a two week downhill streak in late June, rates bounced up just a little bit this week.About 2 basis points on the average for the 30 year right before the jobs report job.Now still, we're hook hovering near the lowest levels that we've seen since early April, which feels like a win after flirting with over 7% earlier this year. In fact, Freddie Mac has 30 year fixed around 6.67 on average right now, making that five straight weeks of downward motion. So why the dip?Well, declining inflation readings and softer bond yields, especially in mortgage backed securities, are finally letting rates exhale a little bit. However, then came the June jobs report. It showed that we added 147,000 jobs to the economy and unemployment ticked down to 4.1%.So that gave the bond market a little bit of heartburn and put a little bit of cold water on hopes for a July rate cut, as many in the market were expect. So the Fed meets again on July 29, and while most members still expect to see cuts this year, September's now looking like our next real shot.So until then, we're all just sitting around watching inflation reruns like it's season six of a Netflix show that peaked in season three. All right, now let's Talk a little bit about those job numbers. So June brought us 147,000 new jobs, but who exactly got those jobs?Well, it turns out most of those jobs weren't going to tech Bros or startup cowboys. No, it's mostly teachers, nurses, and of course, more government roles. Yay, bureaucracy. So state and local government added about 73,000 jobs.Now, 47,000 of those were in education alone, which is actually good. So we get chalkboards, beat chatbots, which I love, and healthcare and social assistance added about 58,000 jobs.But private sector payrolls were down 33,000, and that's the first drop that we've seen in two years. And you know what's funny? Not funny funny, but it feels like deja vu. Remember when Biden was touting his record job growth?Well, a lot of those were government and healthcare gigs also. And now that the red team's in charge of, well, what do we get? It's kind of the same story, just a little different. Narrator.Don't get me wrong, we need teachers and nurses. Absolutely. But if we're claiming that we're jumpstarting the economy, shouldn't we see more small business growth like manufacturing and tech?Or are we just kind of hiring each other to fill out forms and give out flu shots? Not saying it's good or bad necessarily. I'm just asking the question. Meanwhile, if you look at layoffs, they have a different story.You see, let's not forget the private sector is still looking a little bit shaky. In fact, the tech industry has laid off 63,000 workers over 147 companies just this year alone. Amazon, Google, Meta, and Disney.Yeah, even Mickey Mouse is trimming the payroll. And the good news is that Uncle Sam has been pretty busy too. There have been 275,000 federal jobs that have been axed through layoffs and buyouts.So the only question is, is is the job market actually healthy? Well, if you're looking for work in public health or education, it looks pretty good.But if you're chasing a six figure tech job or trying to launch your own AI startup, maybe not so much.Now, I'd be remiss if I did not mention the freshly passed big beautiful bill that just cleared the house and is heading to Trump's desk for signatures. So let's take a quick look at what's inside this economic pinat. So first off, you have the extension of Trump era tax cuts from 2017.That makes them permanent. On the good side of things, there's no taxes on tips and overtime. Plus there's a big salt cap hike, up to $40,000.Salt is state, state and local taxes. Doesn't really help Texas much, but a lot of other states it does.Now the bill also includes major Medicaid and SNAP cuts, which I think is still up for some debate right now, but I'm not 100% sure they're still talking about that piece. Medicaid looks like it's going to be slashed by roughly 18 to 20%.SNAP or food stamps funding has dropped about 20%, adding also new work requirements to the program.Bill includes a clean energy credit rollback which reverses many of the bide solar and wind incentives, which is maybe why Elon Musk is a little pissed off. More on that in a second.And it adds a good amount of immigration enforcement and border security somewhere in the neighborhoods of 45 to $50 billion for ICE and border walls and upwards of $100 billion over six years for border and ICE funding. We also get a big defense spending boost, no shocker there, because wars and underground bunkers don't fund themselves.Did a big debt ceiling increase which added 4 to 5 trillion towards our borrowing authority for the federal government. So more debts obviously coming down the road.And also a supposed thousand dollar contribution provided to children born between 2025 and 2028 as well as an expansion of current College 529 plans.Now I'm not sure of all the exact details on this particular one or any of the restrictions yet because there's always restrictions, but I'm pretty sure there's going to be more details to come. But I like the way that sounds. So is this bill good or bad? Well, you tell me.Currently the CBO warns that it'll add 3 to 4 trillion dollars to the deficit over the next 10 years. That's obviously doesn't sound great. It also says that between 11 to 12 million Americans are projected to lose health insurance by 2034.I know if that's true or not, that seems to be an estimate, but that's what they're saying. They're also saying that 3 million plus SNAP recipients are expected to lose food aid. Well, who, which recipients and why are they losing it?I don't know, but the number sounds bad. But until you dig into what the reasons are, you never really know the answer to that question.Now Elon Musk, who was Trump's best buddy for a very long time, has called it a debt bomb and says that this bill is a disgusting abomination and he plans to challenge Republicans that supported this bill. Not sure if you knew this or not, but Trump and Elon broke up recently because Elon was cast off the D.C. love Island.And now Elon is backing guys like Rep. Thomas Massie, who briefly held up the vote even though it squeaked through after. In fact, Elon has started his own America party.Not sure what's going to happen with that or how that's going to go, but it's certainly going to be entertaining over the next several months. Now, what did Trump's supporters say about the bill?Well, from their point of view, this bill will spark growth and create a golden age and fix inflation. Outside of that, we don't have a whole lot of details as to why they think it's going to be great other than just growth.In their mind, the more you grow and the more you spend, the more you can pay off the debt because income and revenue comes in and you can pay off debt that way, which can make sense. But I feel like we just kind of watch Congress hit the buy now, pay later button when it comes to the US Economy again.Now, to be fair, we're going to have to wait and see what happens.There's a lot of things about this bill that I like, but there's a lot of things about it that don't sound great, especially when you look at where the debt is headed.So are the rich getting richer with this bill and lower American suffering, or are we going to get a booming economy not seen since the Reagan era, But unfortunately, I'm not smart enough to answer that question. However, if we can grow out of this debt spiral, then I say let's go. However, color me a little suspicious.I feel like I've seen this movie before and it usually ends with big credit card bill and a sad mortgage. But I hope for all of our sake that they are right. What does this mean for mortgages in real estate, though?Well, more government and healthcare jobs might boost consumer confidence, but if private paychecks are shrinking and layoffs are rising, affordability is still going to take a pretty big hit. And a giant deficit, well, that could push treasury yields higher, dragging mortgage rates up with them. But what do I know?I'm just a bald mortgage banker in a T shirt talking on the Internet. Let's move on. We're going to talk a little housing data Texas style and our market spotlight this week.Everyone's favorite Twitter housing expert punching Bag Austin, Texas, where the music and comedy scenes are smoking hot right now. But the housing market? Well, not so much. Okay, so here's what the data is telling us. Right now, Austin has over 17,600 active listings.That's a 43% increase in inventory this year alone. That's not just a bump, friends. That is the highest level in over a decade. Austin has more homes on the market than BUC EE's has gas pumps.Yep, I said it. Homes are also sitting longer. The average days on market is up to 64, which is about a month and a half longer than last year. Translation.Well, Austin officially is in a buyer's market and honestly, that is not a bad thing. Curious how sellers are reacting. Well over 56% of listings have had a price cut so far this year.So that 2400 square foot, six hundred thousand dollar house, you might snag it for 550. Bargain bin real estate, Austin style. Speaking of prices, the median sales price in Austin is now hovering around $445,000.And that's down about 19 from the 2022 peak. And the average sold price, well, that's around $587,000, down nearly 14% year over year.Now that is a serious markdown in one of the country's hottest pandemic area boom towns. Finally, transaction volume. We saw about 2,776 closings in June, which is down over 6% from last year.So we got fewer deals, more listings, longer waits, and a whole lot of pricing adjustments. Kind of like a little slice of California right in our own backyard. Just kidding. I love Austin. It's the home of Kill Tony.All right, so what does all this mean? Well, for buyers, it's an all you can eat buffet down there in the capital city.Or inventory means more negotiating power, which means you've got time to shop room to make offers under asking, ask for closing costs to be paid, and sellers who are actually willing to talk instead of asking for highest and best five minutes after you send your offer. Sellers.Well, not to get too dramatic, but if your home's not priced right, it's going to sit like that Tesla cybertruck creep waiting for a future that may or may not ever come. Now let's not forget mortgage rates are still hovering in the upper sixes. And if those do come down, demand might pop.So realtors keep an eye on the Fed and the other eye on your client's anxiety meter. As we've seen in the past, it really doesn't take much to flip markets these days.Back there, I wonder if the Illuminati has any other pandemics queued up that we might not know about. Just kidding. Now, Austin Realtors, here's your ammo for this week. For buyers, use this moment to flex with your negotiating skills.There's all sorts of leverage out here. As for seller paid closing costs, new roofs, new flooring, buy downs.Heck, you could probably negotiate season tickets to see Arch Manning lead the burnt orange this fall. I mean, what's the harm in asking right now for sellers? Price competitively and aggressively that condo, like you're going on hgtv.And don't get greedy. Buyers have options, and Zillow is not your friend right now. We all know the saying, there's only three reasons that your listing isn't moving.Price, price, and price. So this isn't a time to treat your sellers like your Instagram and apply that Paris filter all over the place.Be honest and tell them the truth, no matter how ugly it might be. So Austin's housing market, it is not dead, but it's definitely chilling at the mothership, sipping on a lime flavored topo chico.Because who drinks regular topo chico, though? I mean, really hoping that the next act is better than whatever mess went on stage earlier this year. Here's the spring 2026.May it bring us fewer price drops and more applause. Okay, moving on up next, welcome back to Mike's Mind, where the headlines are real. The logic is kind of optional.And the aliens are apparently not only here. They might be better at building homes than we are. So let's kick it off with a fun fact.For the first time since 2006, it's now twice as expensive to buy an entry level home as it is to rent. That's right, it is now cheaper to rent a Manhattan penthouse for your dog than it is to buy a basic home in the suburbs.And just in case you thought, well, maybe I'll just buy with family help, you're not alone. 21% of Gen Z home buyers are now planning to fund their down payment with a loan from the bank of mom and dad.And meanwhile, in breaking dystopia, if you've ever used one of those buy now, pay later buttons to grab a hoodie and a PS5. Congrats. Your little checkout impulse will now affect your credit score.That's right, miss a Klarna payment and you might as well be applying for a mortgage with Monopoly money. Oh, and for the nearly 2 million Americans still behind on student loans, your wages garnished.Now we're talking less parsley and more debt collection. But don't worry, Dallas is saving the economy, or trying to at least Wall street is quietly migrating to y' all Street.I expect you're going to hear that a lot more in the future. Three stock exchanges, five megabanks expanding, and two more on the way.Because apparently when coastal cities get a little weird, Texas becomes the safe haven for capitalism. Yeehaw, baby. Speaking a little weird, the US Housing system just recognized Bitcoin as a reserve asset. That's right.The government now says Bitcoin is solid enough to be collateral. So this means that your house may be underwater, but at least your down payment could come from a dog themed meme coin.Now, while that's going on, KB Homes recently reminded us that yes, you can end up upside down on your builder incentive house because you overpaid for that free granite upgrade and your yard smaller than a Tesla charging space. Now let's zoom out. Home prices have skyrocketed 94% over the past decade, while wages have grown by less than half of that.In 1955, your mortgage cost $112 a month. In 2025, try $2800. That's a 2300% jump. And meanwhile, auto insurance is up 84 in just five years. Because why not go for the financial double whammy?And while Main street is juggling Klarna payments and family loans, Wall street is dumping stocks like they know something that we don't. Institutions sold 4.2 billion in stocks just last week.Retail investors, however, bought in because nothing says stable economy like mom and pop buying while blackrock's diving out the emergency exit. Just when you thought it couldn't get any weirder, turns out the US is spending 1.2 trillion a year just paying interest on the debt that we have.That's 3.3 billion every single day. More than we spend on health care, more than we spend on defense.We now spend more just keeping the lights on for Uncle Sam's credit card than on actual Americans. Don't worry, it gets better. You know how hard it is to inspect a house these days?Well, AI is now doing pre drywall scans better than veteran inspectors. That's right. Home inspections are going fully minority reports.Soon your inspector will just walk around with a tablet while ChatGPT tells you that your foundation's a lie. And in case you're worried about reality itself, allow me to introduce the real news.NASA just confirmed that an alien rock named 3i/atlas is screaming through our solar system at 152, 000 miles per hour. And it ain't from around here. It's the size of Manhattan and it's apparently on a casual cruise past Mars this October.And if that doesn't convince you that we're living in a cut scene from a disaster movie, I don't know what will. Oh, and a new tomography scan of the Great Pyramid found eight cylindrical structures with coils underneath the pyramids, hundreds of meters tall.So apparently the ancient Egyptians were running a power grid 3, 000 years ago while we're still trying to figure out how to wire up a tiny home.And as I mentioned earlier, Elon Musk is now threatening to primary any Republican who backs Trump's big beautiful bill and start his own political party called and potentially annex the moon if he doesn't get his way. I'm just kidding. He's not gonna annex him. At least that I know.Oh, and P. Diddy, in case you missed it, he was found guilty of transporting for prostitution. Not racketeering, not trafficking. Just the logistics of it. Just means that money wins again.Last but not least, according to a former U.S. army colonel, non human intelligence is real and they've been here for a long time.So, yeah, aliens, ancient tech, collapsing housing affordability, and crypto backed mortgages, all of it happened right here in this little brain of mine.So let's review, in case you missed it, housing's broken, debt is exploding, inspectors are becoming iPads, credit scores are becoming feelings, and aliens apparently just vibing with us since the pyramids.It's Mike's mind where the economy's upside down, the headlines are sideways, and reality is probably a simulation anyway, so see you next week, assuming the Martian doesn't flip your house before you. All right, let's climb out of the crazy hole for just a second and jump into our main story about an AI tool helping you grow your business.So let's be real for just a second. You've been in the business for a few years, or maybe longer.You've met hundreds, maybe thousands of people through school, past jobs, that neighborhood barbecue, your kids, soccer team, church, college friends, Facebook friends, people from open houses who just ghosted you, and many, many other places. And you know what? You probably have some of their names, a few emails, maybe a phone number or two saved as Jake met at Starbucks or Sandy pta.Maybe those numbers are in your phone. But here's the problem. Most agents never stop to think. What if the next three listings I need this year are already sitting in my phone?You've got this massive, beautiful, messy contact list full of Potential sellers and referral gold and just sits there because the idea of organizing it well, it's pretty overwhelming. The idea of manually entering it all into a CRM sounds like torture. And even if you do upload it all, then what? Who's ready to move?Who's just window shopping? Who even owns a house?Now imagine a tool that not only helps you clean up and organize all that chaos, but actually tells you which of those contacts is most likely to sell their home next. Imagine turning your database from chaos into actual money. That's where Fellow comes in.And this week's AI tip is going to show you exactly how it flips your forgotten contacts into future closing. So what is Fellow? Well, Fellow is an AI powered database optimizer built for real estate pros.Think of it as like a CRM whisperer, only instead of giving you deep thoughts, it gives you seller leads, predictive scoring and automated follow ups. And the best thing is it plugs into whatever CRM that you're already using, follow up boss, KVCore, even a glorified spreadsheet.And it transforms your contact list into a highly targeted lead generation, equity sniffing, sales. And what do you get?Well, AI lead scoring to show you who's closest to selling property and ownership, verification, custom marketing campaigns, and even branded homeowner dashboards to keep clients obsessively checking their equity in your system. So you know that giant CRM that you've been ignoring? Well yeah, it is leaking opportunities. Like a flip house with galvanized plumbing.Velo turns that dormant database into your own personal Zillow with seller insights, equity alerts and behavior based tracking to tell you who's ready to list, refinance or even just ghost you again. And this isn't some kind of Frankenstein tech stack. Fellow does this in your existing CRM without having to rebuild your entire workflow.So what can it do for you exactly? Well, it can revive cold leads. It'll pull equity rich homeowners out of the woodwork with AI based lead score.It can automate engagement, send postcards with QR codes. It can do drip emails or equity alerts the moment that your contact sneezes in the direction of assessment. It'll also hyper prioritize outreach.See, Fellow's propensity scores tell you who's actually worth calling so you stop wasting your time on tire kickers. And yes, it even builds custom landing pages that convert faster than a price drop on a stale listing.Now if Fellow ever gets sentient, it'll probably start its own brokerage send postcards to your clients and undercut you with a lower commission rate. So you've been warned. Just kidding. All right, this all sounds great, but what is the cost?Well, Fellow starts at about $165 a month, and that is not cheap.But it's also not ridiculous when you consider that it enriches your contacts with verified ownership and property, it flags active sellers before they hit the market, and it eliminates the need for six or more other apps. Now, on the flip side of this, just some things to know.Dumb users of Fellow do report integration issues with certain CRMs, so check that ahead of time. Others mentioned that the postcard shipping can get a little expensive, and there are occasional complaints about lead quality or data accuracy.But for the most part, the ROI far outweighs the quirks, especially if you're the kind of agent who'd rather work smarter than chase cold leads for sport. So, Fellow pros predictive seller scoring seamless campaign tools.Works with any CRM, almost equity plus property intelligence, gorgeous branding, homeowner dashboards, and amazing customer support. Fellow Cons integration isn't always plug and play. Postcards don't sound like they're very cheap.Data quality varies in some markets and lacks advanced ad retargeting or remarketing options. For now. So what does all this mean? By the way, this is not an ad paid for by Fellow. This is just my own personal research on this particular product.So there's no business benefit for me here, just honest recommendation. You see, Fellow isn't just a database tool. It's a lead conversion machine.It'll clean up your contact list, prioritize your prospects, and keep your clients engaged with better insights than the Internet ever gave them. Just another robot doing more for your closings than Congress did for your student loans. So check them out, try it out. Let me know what you think.All right, guys, we made it. Rates are still confused, Austin's market is taking a nap, and apparently your CRM knows more about your friends than you do.Oh, and aliens might be staging a listing presentation inside the Great Pyramid. Totally normal week. Look, the world's weird, the market's weirder.But staying informed and mildly sarcastic is still your best shot at surviving at all. Whether you're chasing closings or just trying to remember your lock code, you are not alone. Until next time, be great humans and just keep grinding.Life is what you make it, so make it great. See you.