The 30-year mortgage went from 6.89% to 7.58% in three weeks. Everybody's blaming oil and the war in Iran — but oil dropped 4% the same day rates hit their high, and rates went up anyway.
So what's actually moving your rate? Where does a mortgage rate even come from? And who is this "strong economy" actually strong for?
Plus: the Texas housing market is doing the opposite of what national headlines say, why the Zillow payment estimate is almost never right here, a better move than cutting your listing price, and a full walkthrough of setting up an AI project so you stop explaining your entire business every single morning.
RATES AS OF 9/29/26 (Mortgage News Daily index)
30-Year Fixed Conventional — 7.58%
15-Year Fixed Conventional — 7.20%
30-Year FHA — 7.24%
30-Year VA — 7.25%
30-Year Jumbo — 7.60%
Market averages, not a quote.
WHY RATES ARE CLIMBING
Mortgage rates are built off the 10-year Treasury — currently around 5.25% — plus a spread of roughly 2%. From late February to mid-September the 30-year rose 0.97 points and the 10-year rose 0.97 points. Identical, to the basis point. The government is borrowing enormous sums and paying more to attract lenders. Your mortgage rides on top of that.
TEXAS HOUSING — NOT THE FROZEN MARKET YOU'VE HEARD ABOUT
Closed sales running ahead of last year · median around $343,000, about 0.4% below a year ago · prices softening 13 straight months · inventory around 5.5 months · typical price cut about $12,000 · homes selling in about 62 days
IS THIS 2008 AGAIN?
Peak to trough last crisis: Dallas fell 10.5%, Austin 8.5%. Las Vegas fell 64%, Phoenix 56%, Miami 52%. Texas never inflated, so there was nothing to give back.
BUILD A PROJECT — THE SIX PIECES
Title · description · custom instructions · context documents · the SOP · connectors. Plus the part nobody does: you don't write the procedure, you do the job with the AI open and then tell it to write down what you did.
FREE FOR TEXAS AGENTS
I built a project for agents running a buyer through a transaction — TREC forms, the contract, timelines, deadlines, and email templates for every step. Message me and I'll send it your way.
CHAPTERS
00:00 Rates jumped and it isn't oil
00:23 Welcome to the show
01:26 What's in this episode
02:30 Quick word
02:53 Rates: where we are
03:57 Why rates are climbing
05:16 How your mortgage rate gets built
07:48 Buyer tip: the payment Zillow won't tell you
08:25 Texas housing: not the frozen market you heard about
09:52 Is this 2008 again?
11:11 Seller tip: a better move than cutting price
12:50 Mike's Mind
17:14 Agent tip: turn showing feedback into proof
18:22 Build a project: the full walkthrough
28:16 Wrap
CONNECT
mikemillstx.com · mike@mikemillstx.com · 817-689-6079
Podcast: thetexasrealestateandfinancepodcast.com
Mike Mills, NMLS
#756263 · GVC Mortgage, DBA Core Community Mortgage, NMLS #2334 · Equal Housing Lender. Educational content, not a loan commitment or an offer to lend.
