Oil dropped 4% and mortgage rates went up anyway. So if it isn't oil, what's actually moving your rate?
In three weeks the 30-year went from about 6.89% to 7.58% (Mortgage News Daily index averages, as of 9/29/26). Everybody's blaming oil and the war. The numbers say something else.
In this video:
- Why oil and the war don't explain this move
- Who this "strong economy" is actually strong for
- How mortgage rates are determined: the 10-year Treasury plus the spread
- The stat that proves it, to the basis point
- Why you should stop trying to time rates
Full episode (MU194), Why Rates Spiked, Why Texas Isn't Frozen, and How to Set Up AI Right:
YouTube: https://youtu.be/mHxnTwFPG_I
Podcast page: https://www.thetexasrealestateandfinancepodcast.com/mortgage-rates-rising-2026/
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/why-rates-spiked-why-texas-isnt-frozen-and-how-to-set/id1650029207?i=1000792363099&uo=4
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/0BCbz71jK42ZvwXhEXFGWE
Got a buyer trying to make sense of this market? Call or text me at 817-689-6079.
00:00 Oil fell. Rates went up anyway.
00:27 Highest rates since April 2024
00:54 It isn't oil and the war
01:31 Strong economy, but strong for who?
02:13 How your mortgage rate is built
03:06 Where rates go from here
#MortgageRates #TexasRealEstate #RealEstateAgents
Mike Mills, Branch Manager · NMLS #756263 · GVC Mortgage, Inc. · NMLS #2334 · DBA Core Community Mortgage · mikemillstx.com
This is for educational purposes only and is not a commitment to lend or an offer to extend credit. All loan approvals are subject to underwriting, credit, income, asset, and property review. Rates, terms, and programs are subject to change without notice and are not guaranteed. Rates cited are Mortgage News Daily index averages, not a quote.
Equal Housing Lender.
