The housing market crash callers have been wrong for 3 straight years. So why would 2026 be any different?
In this video, I break down what institutional economists are ACTUALLY predicting for the 2026 housing market—specifically here in Dallas-Fort Worth and North Texas.
🔍 WHAT WE COVER:
→ Why crash predictions failed in 2023, 2024, and 2025
→ What NAR, Fannie Mae, Zillow, and Texas A&M are forecasting for 2026
→ DFW county-by-county performance breakdown (Rockwall +6.4%, Collin/Denton -8-9%)
→ Mortgage rate forecasts: Where are rates headed in 2026?
→ Why the new Fed chair in May matters for your mortgage
→ DFW's competitive advantages: jobs, migration, and new construction
→ The "Great Housing Reset" vs. a market crash
→ What buyers should actually do if they've been waiting
📊 KEY DATA POINTS:
- National home prices ROSE 0.7% in 2025 (didn't crash)
- DFW median price: $405K (stable, -0.49% YoY)
- ALL major institutions predicting 1-4% growth in 2026
- Mortgage rates forecast to drop to 6.0-6.1% by year-end
- DFW added 40,000+ jobs in 2025
- 120+ companies relocated HQs to DFW in last 5 years
- Mortgage applications SURGED 31% in late 2025
🏡 NORTH TEXAS SPECIFIC ANALYSIS:
This isn't just national data—I dive deep into what makes the Dallas-Fort Worth market different and why we're positioned to lead the national housing recovery in 2026.
⚠️ THE BOTTOM LINE:
The crash isn't coming. The market is resetting. And if you've been waiting for rock-bottom prices, you're betting against three years of data proving the crash callers wrong.
📖 READ THE FULL ARTICLE:
https://open.substack.com/pub/millsamike/p/everyone-predicting-a-2026-housing?r=3mhf9y&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
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ABOUT MIKE MILLS:
I'm a mortgage banker with Service First Mortgage in North Texas, helping buyers navigate the DFW housing market for over 16 years. I cut through the noise and give you straight data—no hype, no doom-scrolling, just facts.
📞 WANT TO DISCUSS YOUR SITUATION?
NMLS #756263
817-689-6079
mmills@sfmc.com
millsteammortgage.com
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⏱️ TIMESTAMPS:
0:00 - Intro: 3 Years of Failed Crash Predictions
1:30 - What Actually Happened in 2025
3:15 - DFW County-by-County Breakdown
5:00 - 2026 Institutional Forecasts
7:20 - Mortgage Rate Predictions
9:10 - Why DFW Is Different
11:00 - Why the Crash Won't Happen
13:30 - What You Should Actually Do
15:00 - Conclusion: The Reset Is Opportunity
#HousingMarket #RealEstate #DFW #DallasRealEstate #FortWorth #MortgageRates #HousingCrash2026 #TexasRealEstate #FirstTimeHomeBuyer #RealEstateInvesting #FederalReserve #MarketAnalysis #NorthTexas
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💬 COMMENT below: Are you still waiting for a crash, or are you ready to buy?
DISCLAIMER: This video is for educational and informational purposes only. It should not be considered financial advice. Please consult with a licensed mortgage professional or financial advisor before making any home buying decisions. Market conditions can change. All data cited from institutional sources as of January 2026.
