Aug. 27, 2025

Mortgage Rate Cut Outlook 2025 | Fed Policy, Housing Trends & Realtor Tips

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Mortgage Rate Cut Outlook 2025 | Fed Policy, Housing Trends & Realtor Tips

Mortgage rate cuts are back on the table — but will they actually help buyers, or just push prices higher? In this week’s Texas Real Estate & Finance Podcast, Mike Mills breaks down the Fed’s latest signals, housing market shifts, and the AI tools Realtors can use to stay ahead. If you’re a Realtor navigating 2025 chaos, this one’s for you.

Episode Overview

The Mortgage Rate Cut Outlook 2025 is finally shifting, but what does it actually mean for Realtors, buyers, and sellers? In this episode, Mike Mills dives into the Fed’s Jackson Hole updates, Texas housing market stats, and the impact of inflation vs. jobs data. Realtors will learn:

  • Why mortgage rates don’t always follow Fed cuts
  • How to frame buyer conversations around payments, not headlines
  • Why sellers should price right in the first two weeks
  • How AI workflows can turn client interviews into personalized marketing

If you’ve been asking: “How can Realtors prepare clients for rate cuts?” or “What mortgage strategies still work in 2025?” — this episode has the answers.

Key Takeaways

1. Mortgage Rate Cut Outlook Is Complex

The Fed may cut rates in September 2025, but mortgage rates don’t always move in lockstep with Fed policy. Realtors must educate clients that affordability depends on both rates and home prices, not just one headline.

2. Buyer Concessions Beat Price Cuts

A $10,000 price cut lowers a payment by just $65/month, but $10,000 in concessions saves real cash today. Realtors should coach buyers to negotiate concessions rather than chasing small monthly savings.

3. Sellers Must Price Smart Early

The first two weeks on market are critical. Overpricing leads to stagnation, price cuts, and lowball offers, while sharp pricing sparks competition and higher final sales. Realtors must guide sellers to hit the market aggressively.

4. Texas Housing Market Is Splintered

DFW is sliding, Houston is holding strong, Austin is still 17% below its peak, and San Antonio is affordable but cutting prices. Realtors need to tailor strategies to each local market instead of following national headlines.

5. AI Can Personalize Client Experiences

Recording and transcribing the first buyer/seller meeting allows Realtors to use AI (ChatGPT, NotebookLM) to generate presentations, follow-ups, and long-term profiles. For less than $50/month, Realtors can automate personalization like a Fortune 500 marketer.

🔗 Resources

• Podcast Website → https://www.thetexasrealestateandfinancepodcast.com

• Linktree (all links + contact) → https://linktr.ee/mikemillsmortgage

• Mortgage News Daily (rate index source) → https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com

• Otter.ai (transcription tool) → https://otter.ai

• Related Episode → “Mortgage Rate Forecasting: What Realtors Need to Know for 2025”

Enjoying the podcast? Subscribe and leave a review to help more real estate professionals discover these insights!

00:00 - Mike’s Mind Cold Open – Debt, Robots & Chaos

00:35 - Podcast Intro – Mike Mills & Episode Rundown

02:25 - Current Mortgage Rates & Fed Jackson Hole Recap

07:09 - Realtor Tips – Buyers & Sellers in a Shifting Market

10:20 - Buyer Tip of the Week – Concessions Beat Price Cuts

11:15 - Texas Housing Market Data – Statewide & Major Metros

15:36 - Realtor Outlook – Buyer Leverage & Seller Strategy

16:13 - Agent Tip of the Week – Rate Headlines Lie

17:13 - Mike’s Mind Segment – Debt, BlackRock, Foreign Buyers, Robots & Comet

21:37 - Seller Tip of the Week – Price Right the First Time

23:11 - AI Tip of the Week – Transcripts into Marketing Machines

27:13 - Conclusion – Recap & Signoff

Speaker A

The government's broke, but spending like a trust fund kid housing's rigged by Wall street, but half the metro areas are tanking.

Speaker A

Consumers are broke, corporations are broke, but McDonald's robots are still thriving.

Speaker A

And Texas kids just lost their phones.

Speaker A

Australia lost their bedrooms.

Speaker A

And maybe we're all about to lose to an alien comet.

Speaker A

Welcome to America in 2025.

Speaker A

More debt, fewer jobs, higher prices, stranger headlines.

Speaker A

And that is Mike's mind, where logic goes to die.

Speaker A

But conspiracies keep compounding.

Speaker A

Like a U.S. congressman's stock portfolio, foreign cuts are coming back.

Speaker A

BlackRock's game in the housing market.

Speaker A

Somewhere in Texas, a robot just took your McDonald's.

Speaker A

Welcome to 2025.

Speaker A

This is the Texas Real Estate and Finance podcast, the show for realtors, lenders, and housing pros who want to stay smart, stay sane, and maybe even laugh while we figure out where this market's at.

Speaker A

My name is Mike Mills, a North Texas mortgage banker with Service First Lending.

Speaker A

I'm conspiracy fueled, AI obsessed, and your guide through this circus that we all call the housing market.

Speaker A

So this is your market update for the week of August 25th.

Speaker A

What sort of fun is in store for us today?

Speaker A

Well, rate cuts are coming, but inventory is piling up and realtors are finally learning the word concessions.

Speaker A

Texas housing, well, DFW stumbling, Austin's kind of hung over, San Antonio's mostly chill, and Houston's just flexing like it owns the place.

Speaker A

Also, Mike's mind is back, and this week it's got debt, explosions, black rock housing scams, and maybe even an alien comment.

Speaker A

No, seriously, we've also got our buyer tip of the week that'll save you $10,000 today instead of $65 a month, an agent tip that explains why rate headlines are fake news with better graphic design, and a seller tip proving that your first two weeks on the market are make or break.

Speaker A

So price it right or die trying.

Speaker A

Plus, in our AI tip of the week, just one meeting transcript can turn into a fully customized client experience.

Speaker A

Just another week in Texas real estate.

Speaker A

So let's dive in before McDonald's robots start flipping houses.

Speaker A

All right, so before we get rolling, you know this.

Speaker A

This podcast is not free to make, and neither are my teenagers car insurance plans.

Speaker A

So here's a short little plug.

Speaker A

Again, my name is Mike Mills.

Speaker A

I'm a North Texas mortgage banker, and my job is to make realtors look good and buyers feel like humans instead of just loan numbers.

Speaker A

So if that's your vibe, all my contact information is sitting down in the show notes, easy and if you want to keep this show rolling, the best thing you can do is leave a comment, share with a friend, or smash the like button like it owes you some money.

Speaker A

I'm just one guy with a mic and a mortgage license fighting the algorithm.

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Every day I I'm here.

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All right, plug done.

Speaker A

Back to the regularly scheduled madness.

Speaker A

All right, we're going to start off with the ho question that I hear more often than Trump calls Pal a and just like pal, my answer changes every week depending on which economic dumpster fire is currently burning.

Speaker A

So hey Mike, what are the rates?

Speaker A

Well, according to Mortgage News Daily, as of August 25, 2025, the 30 year fixed conventional mortgage rate is around 6.52.

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The average 15 year fixed conventional rate is about 5.90.

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The average 30 year FHA rate is about 6.11, the average 30 year VA rate is about 6.13, and the average 30 year jumbo rate is sitting at around 6.50 right now.

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Now, to be clear, these are average market rate index numbers from Mortgage News Daily and may not reflect the specific rates that you qualify for.

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Mortgage rates vary widely depending on your credit score, loan type, down payment, and more.

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So talk to a licensed mortgage professional like me or your local lender.

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All right.

Speaker A

CFPB approves, though I think these days they're down to like five employees in a fax machine.

Speaker A

But anyway, so as of this weekend, it finally feels like we're starting to move in the direction that everyone in the real estate industry has been hoping for the last three years.

Speaker A

Rate cuts are coming.

Speaker A

Now, what happened last week?

Speaker A

Well, the Fed held its annual meeting at Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

Speaker A

And this meeting isn't just where they decide what to do about rates, but it's ultimately held to foster open in depth discussions among central bankers, policymakers, economists and thought leaders about pressing economic issues and long term policy changes.

Speaker A

In reality, this is just another spot that elites get to have a meeting in a really awesome location and decide how the rest of us are going to continue to give them all our money, all 1 percentage point at a time.

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But I digress.

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So before Powell spoke on Thursday, the CME Fed Watch tool, which predicts the odds of a rate cut, had it at about 76% that would happen in September.

Speaker A

But after Powell spoke, the odds went up to 89%.

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So it wasn't a sure thing.

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But it was for sure, much more likely.

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So what caused this change?

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Well, first you have to understand that the Fed has what's called a dual mandate price Stability and full employment.

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So most of the factors that help the Fed make up their mind on if they plan to cut rates or not come down to inflation and unemployment numbers.

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So, typically, if inflation is high and or unemployment is low, then rate cuts are unlikely.

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But if inflation is low and or unemployment is rising, then rate cuts are more likely to occur.

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But right now, inflation is still rising in many cases, and at the same time, the labor market is getting weaker.

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And this is all based off the latest CPI and employment data that we got from the bls.

Speaker A

So we got inflation numbers that are suggesting rates should remain high, but a weakening labor market that indicates that the Fed should start to look to cut.

Speaker A

So, Mr.

Speaker A

Pals in kind of a pickle right here.

Speaker A

You see, in early August, the jobs report came in so bad that the CME Fed watch tool instantly priced in a 94.9% chance of a September rate cut.

Speaker A

Why was this?

Speaker A

Well, the job revisions in that report were catastrophic.

Speaker A

You see, May jobs revised from 144,000 down to just 19,000, and June jobs were revised from 147,000 down to just 14,000.

Speaker A

That's over 250,000 jobs in two months.

Speaker A

That is massive.

Speaker A

And then the July jobs report that expected to come in at 120,000 jobs only came in at 73.

Speaker A

And given the job revision history, it is very likely that those July numbers will also be revised down as well, and they may even go negative in jobs created.

Speaker A

So that's not just a slowdown.

Speaker A

That is the labor market falling into a ditch.

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It was so bad, in fact, that Trump fired the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor and Statistics.

Speaker A

Now, right or wrong, BLS data has felt a little sketchy ever since COVID It's either hiding information or it's really running broken algorithms.

Speaker A

Now, I'm not saying the commissioner deserved it, but Trump went full apprentice 2005 all on her.

Speaker A

You see, he was fine in the past when the revisions made Biden look bad, but the second it hurt his own economy, boom, you fired.

Speaker A

Now, Wall street, of course, cheered like a bunch of tweens at a K pop concert because bad jobs data means cheaper money.

Speaker A

Because at that point, rate cuts were basically baked in.

Speaker A

But then the inflation numbers strutted in like Thanos, ready to ruin the party.

Speaker A

You see, core PCE, and that's the Fed's favorite measure, stalled at around 2.9 to 3.1% and absolutely refusing to go down.

Speaker A

And many feel that the tariffs were responsible for this.

Speaker A

And after that, suddenly the national narrative flipped.

Speaker A

Instead of rate cuts or a lock, it became how can the Fed cut rates with inflation still raging on?

Speaker A

And although it did increase slightly, it didn't really move beyond what the expectation was in the inflation data before it came out.

Speaker A

So the Fed looking at those numbers because they met expectations, seemed to have less of an impact than the jobs report numbers which ultimately are the main focus right now.

Speaker A

And at that meeting, Powell even stated that inflation was expected to rise and possibly just a one time blip on the radar because of the tariffs that were imposed, meaning that it's expected to be very short lived and not that long lasting.

Speaker A

And he also stated that he felt the labor market was more important to the overall health of the economy and therefore could possibly warrant a rate cut.

Speaker A

And so after that meeting on Friday, you saw all the asset prices spike up with the expectation of looser monetary policy on a go forward basis.

Speaker A

And all that just means that markets expect cheaper money coming our way very soon.

Speaker A

So will the Fed cut rates in September?

Speaker A

Well, as of right now, everybody's pretty much betting on that.

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And markets of course are reacting accordingly.

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And that is why you are seeing now in the bond market more money moving into mortgage backed securities.

Speaker A

Therefore, mortgage rates are starting to inch down into the mid to low sixes and in some cases even the high 5% range.

Speaker A

So what do we tell our clients based on this information?

Speaker A

Well, for buyers, let them know that rates are coming down, but don't assume that this is going to continue.

Speaker A

It could absolutely, for sure.

Speaker A

But we also just added another trillion dollars to the national debt over just the last 48 days.

Speaker A

And mortgage rates also tie closely to the 10 year treasury yield.

Speaker A

And as debt increases, so does that yield and can cause mortgage rates to go up.

Speaker A

So the rate cut will give some relief for rates for sure, but it may not last very long.

Speaker A

So encourage them to take advantage while they can.

Speaker A

But if rates do continue to fall, demand for housing could also heat up pretty quickly, meaning that home prices may actually rise and offset the benefit of slightly lower rates.

Speaker A

So the waiting for rates to drop further strategy could backfire if the market suddenly surges.

Speaker A

So remind your buyers if they can afford a home right now, long locking in today's price could be smarter than gambling on tomorrow's rate.

Speaker A

And for sellers, well in Texas, inventory is definitely higher than it was last year, but still not enough to push prices down in any meaningful way.

Speaker A

And so a lot of would be sellers are sitting on the sidelines because they also have to buy.

Speaker A

But there's a catch there.

Speaker A

Because if rates do slip, demand could spike and again drive prices higher.

Speaker A

And that sounds good if you are only selling, but if you also need to buy, waiting could mean paying more for your next home.

Speaker A

Plus, once rates do ease up, some more, listings could also start to flood the market from those sellers that have been waiting, creating more competition for their property.

Speaker A

So listing now, or at least just getting ready, positions your sellers ahead of the wave.

Speaker A

Now, looking ahead, all eyes are going to be on the Fed September 17th meeting.

Speaker A

But the expectation of a cut will already be baked into the market by that time.

Speaker A

Once the meeting actually happens and they announce the rate cuts in a weird, crazy way, you could actually see rates tick up a little bit.

Speaker A

Look, I've been tracking this stuff for 15 years and often when rate cuts finally are officially announced, rates tend to tick up a little bit because that expectation was already priced into the market.

Speaker A

And so therefore the market adjusts back in the other direction some.

Speaker A

But the Fed's next meeting is basically the season finale of this year's monetary soap opera.

Speaker A

Will they cut or will they hold?

Speaker A

Either way, the decision is going to set the tone for mortgage rates headed into the fall.

Speaker A

And you know what?

Speaker A

Trying to predict where rates are going to go is like trying to predict my 17 year old daughter's mood after a long day of school.

Speaker A

It's unpredictable, potentially volatile and dangerous if I ask too many questions.

Speaker A

So the best strategy is just let it play out and adjust your expectations accordingly.

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Because right now there is a ton of uncertainty out there.

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Conflicting data, political posturing and global conflicts.

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It is absolute chaos.

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So I don't know exactly where rates are headed, but I do know this.

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All you can control is you.

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So position yourself as the go to realtor in your market.

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Because when people do decide to move, and they will, and it's often all at once, you'll be the one ready to serve them.

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So build your processes, market your ass off and be ready for when the phone rings.

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Because we could be on the verge of this housing market turning a corner.

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Which means Christmas could finally come for all of us.

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Surviving Tiny Tim's in this post Covid housing market.

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So stay ready and make sure that you aren't a secret agent that no one can find when they're ready to pull the trigger.

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And just one final note on this.

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As rates come down and debt continues to explode, the safest place to have your money right now is in assets, stocks, bonds, heck, even crypto.

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And yes, of course, you guessed it, real estate.

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Because as cash is devalued assets will continue to go up in value.

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And if you want to protect your wealth, an appreciating asset like real estate isn't a bad place to store your cash.

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Just saying.

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All right, let's move on to our buyer.

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Tip of the week.

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So here's the thing that I keep telling buyers in this market.

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Don't get fixated on the sales price.

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I know it sounds backwards, but let's look at the math a little bit.

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So let's say you negotiate $10,000 off the price of a home.

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Sounds great, right?

Speaker A

But in reality, that only lowers your payment by about $65 a month.

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That's right, 65 bucks.

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That is one trip to Chipotle with a teenager.

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Now, if you were to take that same $10,000 as a seller concession, you, meaning that the seller pays your closing costs, that's $10,000 in your pocket today.

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Real cash that you do not have to bring to the table.

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So if you do the math, $65 a month would take you almost 13 years to get back that same $10,000 that you gave up on the front end of the transaction.

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13 years.

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Now, I don't know about you, but I'd rather have that money right now.

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Because as the old saying goes, one in the hand is worth two in the bush.

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And let's be real, those countertops that you want, they're not going to pay for themselves.

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So here's the takeaway for realtors and buyers.

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Push for concessions.

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In this market, sellers are more flexible than they've been in years.

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So don't leave money on the table, chasing a lower price tag.

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Go for the cash.

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That helps you.

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All right, let's go into a little housing data.

Speaker A

So right now, Texas housing feels like a rodeo where half the riders have fallen off their bulls, but the announcer keeps yelling, everything's fine, folks.

Speaker A

You see, statewide prices have basically flatlined.

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Inventory is exploding like a bucky's parking lot on labor day.

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And sellers are finally realizing that buyers don't have to show up with cash.

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A prayer and a blood oath to just to get a house anymore, because buyers are in full control in almost everywhere.

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But the demand for some areas is still pretty strong.

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So let's look at the numbers.

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So right now, Texas overall is looking well, stable if you're an optimist, but a little sluggish if you're a seller.

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The median sales price right now is about $335,000 statewide in July, and that's basically flat from last year.

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So it's up about 0.3% year over year.

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And that's not a lot, but it certainly is not crashing.

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Prices are still rising, even if just slightly.

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Now the average home value is around $304,000, which is actually down 2.4% from last year.

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So here's where you start to see some of the cracks.

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But that's just because homes are taking those price cuts from the highest values that they've ever seen.

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So you would expect this value number to come down just a little bit.

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What about sales volume?

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Well, in July, we sold about 29, 000 homes in Texas.

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And that's a dip from last year because for the first quarter of 2025, sales were down by about 1.5%.

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But that's not as bad as what most of you probably thought.

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So the market is down, but again, not dramatically.

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What about the number of days on the market?

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Well, right now we're sitting at about 72 days on average, and that's up a couple full week from last year.

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So it's not forever, but it's long enough for your sign sitting in the yard that says for sale to start blending into the scenery a little bit.

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So you gotta keep it fresh, guys.

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Change it up a little bit.

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Inventory or active listings are up about 30 to 35% year over year, which puts us at about 4.8 months of supply for the entire state.

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And for context, a balanced market is about six months.

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So buyers have options and sellers don't get to play diva anymore.

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With this many houses available.

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But with supply not all the way back, you can definitely see why prices have stayed stable.

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All right, so let's look at a few metro areas individually.

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So Dallas, Fort Worth, where I live, the median home price is around 380 to 400,000.

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That's actually down about 1.4% from last year.

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Inventory, it keeps rising like my blood pressure during cowboy games.

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Sales are certainly slowing.

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Sellers are cutting prices a little more often.

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Overall, DFW is shifting the fastest towards a buyer's market.

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What about Houston?

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Well, median prices there about 350 to 370 and actually saw a little bit of growth about two and a half percent from last year.

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Even though inventory is up by about 38%, demand is still strong enough to hold those prices steady.

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And right now, by far, Houston's the most resilient of the big four areas in Texas.

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Kind of like the cockroach of Texas housing.

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It's got floods, inflation and tariffs, but prices still seem to be creeping up.

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What About Austin?

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Well, the median price there is about 435,000 to 450,000, and that's down about 2 to 3% year over year, but still sitting 17% below the peak in 2022.

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So in Austin, buyers got more leverage.

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They're not bidding over list anymore, and they're negotiating pretty hard.

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But overall, Austin is still expensive, but at least the days of name your price are over.

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And in San Antonio, the median home price is around $310,000, making it the most affordable of all the big metro areas.

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Now, the year over year price change is anywhere from flat to about 2% higher.

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And right now, their inventory is close to about five months worth of supply.

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And overall, in San Antonio, sellers are chopping prices by an average of about $15,000 per sale.

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So if you want affordability and a really good shot at concessions, Alamo City is your best bet.

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So basically, it's this.

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Dallas is sliding, Houston's holding, Austin's still coming off it's hangover, and San Antonio's like your reliable cousin who shows up with a six pack and just vibes with you all afternoon.

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So, so what does this mean if you were out trying to buy or sell in Texas?

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Well, statewide, we are officially in shift mode.

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We're not crashing, but we're definitely not in a frenzy anymore.

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Inventory starting to stack up.

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Days on market are getting longer, and sellers are starting to realize that they're not holding all the cards.

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So for your buyers, this is the most leverage that they've had in years.

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More homes on longer timelines, fewer bidding wars, and you can actually ask for concessions anytime you want.

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Pay your closing costs, repairs, heck, even get a new fridge if you play your cards right.

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But remember, don't get too comfortable if rates deep.

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If rates dip even just a little bit, demand could flood back into the market overnight.

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And suddenly your negotiating power evaporates.

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Now, for sellers, you can still get a solid price for your home, but you've got to play it smart.

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Price cuts are becoming the norm.

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Houston averages about $12,000 off the original list price in San Antonio, like I said, is about $15,000 off the original list price.

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So waiting to list may not be your friend if you also plan on buying, because again, if rates fall, buyer demand could push prices up.

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Sounds great when you sell, but not so great when you turn around and buy, so your seller's positioning and presentation matter more than ever.

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Stage the house, price it right, and be willing to negotiate.

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So there you have it.

Speaker A

Texas housing.

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As we head into the fall of 2025 is less of a seller stampede and more of a slow dance where buyers actually get to pick the song.

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DFW stumbling a little bit, Houston's flexing, Austin sobering up, and San Antonio's just keeping it kind of cool.

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But don't get too cozy.

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Markets can turn very fast.

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One Fed move, one dip in rates, and we can see this whole thing flip on its head.

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All right, next up, we've got our agent.

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Tip of the so you ever had a buyer come in all pumped up because they saw a headline that said rates dropped to six and a half percent?

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Then you pull out their pre approval, and suddenly it's not six and a half, it's 7.1%.

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And now they look like a kid who just found out Disney World was closed.

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You see, here's the problem with all those rate headlines, their averages.

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Sometimes they're clickbait and they're built for eyeballs and not for actual borrowers.

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And if you set your buyer's expectation based on a headline, you're setting yourself up for a very rough ride.

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So here's how I would suggest you frame it.

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Don't let rate lead the conversation.

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Let the house lead the conversation.

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Let the life change lead the conversation.

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Get your buyers excited about the move.

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New kitchen, shorter commute, better schools.

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Then let your preferred lender break the news on the rate.

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Because sometimes the lender comes in higher, sometimes they come in lower.

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But either way, it's personalized because it's based on their credit, their down payment, and their debt picture.

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And a headline has nothing to do with that.

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And here's the reality of the situation.

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Buyers don't actually care about rates.

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Not really.

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What they care about is the payment.

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Can I afford this each month without having to live off ramen?

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That's ultimately the question.

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And a small shift in rates might move the payment 25, 50 if a big enough one, maybe sometimes 100 bucks.

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But that's a date night, not a disaster.

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So remember this when guiding your buyers.

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Rates are psychological.

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They are not necessarily mathematical.

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Don't let a headline kill their dream before it even starts.

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Keep the focus on the home, the payment, and the life that they want.

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And then let your lender have the rate talk, because it's pretty much their lane anyway.

Speaker A

All right, let's move on to my favorite segment, because in this one, I get to dump my brain salad onto the airwaves and tell you all about the crazy stuff that I see every week and what's going on in my Brain.

Speaker A

Welcome to Mike's Mind, the only segment where US debt, housing scams, alien comments, and McDonald's robots all somehow make sense in the same online rant.

Speaker A

Well, buckle up, because reality has officially jumped the shark this week.

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But let's start with the US Government, because right now, they're making it rain like a broke rapper on his last weekend in Vegas.

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You see, in the last.

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The last 48 days, we've added $1 trillion to the national debt.

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That's 21 billion a day since August 11th.

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And remember when they told us that the economy was strong?

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Apparently it's so strong that we're spending at World War II levels.

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Except back then, at least we got tanks and victory parades.

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Now we're just getting tick tock bans and potholes.

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And while the government's playing Monopoly with their fake money, BlackRock and private equity firms are running the ultimate housing scam.

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So get this.

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They buy an entire neighborhood of homes at about $300,000 each.

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They sit on them until the place looks like a ghost town construction site, then flip a couple to themselves for 700,000.

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Suddenly, every house in the neighborhood is worth $700,000.

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So congratulations, you've just been priced out of your own hometown.

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But the good news is, they still get to rent it back to you for a fortune.

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It's kind of like being mugged and handed the bill for the crowbar.

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Meanwhile, median household wealth among homeowners is 3,700% more than renters.

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Yeah, that's not a typo.

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3,700%.

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So when your buddy says renting gives me flexibility, what he really means is I'm flexible enough to get bent over by BlackRock.

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And speaking of housing, 39 of the top 50 metros in the US saw month over month price declines for the first time in U.S. history.

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And Redfin now says that we have half a million more home sellers than home buyers.

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So the dating pool of real estate looks like a sad middle school dance.

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Sellers on one side, buyers on the other, and no one's making a move until the DJ drops the electric slide.

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And somehow all the buyers that we do have out there are foreign buyers scooping up all of the Texas suburbs with almost half of those purchases being non residents.

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So that neighborhood that your dad grew up.

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Congrats.

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It's now an international investment product.

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Who needs block parties when we've got global capital inflows?

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But how are consumers doing?

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Well, they're holding on by a thread.

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Siri's credit card Delinquencies are at 12.3%, and that's the highest since 2011.

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Auto loan delinquencies are up to 5%, and that's just a hair under record levels.

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Student loan delinquencies, well, they're up 9.4 percentage points in the last two quarters.

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Basically, Americans are drowning in debt while inflation's turned eggs into a luxury item.

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Yes, eggs.

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They're up 157% in the last five years.

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Forget gold bars.

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I'm holding cartons of H E B eggs in my safe.

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And it's not just households that are cracking.

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446 large companies filed for bankruptcy this year, and that's already 12% above pandemic levels.

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July alone had the most since July of 2020.

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Companies right now are folding faster than lawn chairs at the tailgate.

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But hey, not everything is doom and gloom because Taylor Sheridan, the mastermind behind Yellowstone and Landman, is building the biggest film studio in Texas.

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So that's great.

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When the rest of the economy collapses, at least we'll have high definition cowboy dramas to binge on while we're eating our $10 eggs.

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And speaking of collapse, Australia is now considering a bedroom tax, so they're going to be charging people for not using all the bedrooms in their home.

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Guess the government motto is what is yours and what is ours is still ours.

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And you think that's crazy?

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Well, give it about five years because the IRS will be auditing your garage fridge for all those expensive food items.

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And Speaking of food, McDonald's just opened an all robot location in Texas.

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No employees.

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The food's cooked, served, and charged entirely by AI because what Americans really needed was fewer jobs, less human interaction, and a world where a robot can screw up your mcflurry just as well as Walter used to.

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And if you're wondering how the kids are handling this crazy new world, well, Texas just banned cell phones in the classroom.

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No more tiktoks during algebra, no more Snapchats under the desk.

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Just old school boredom, pencil chewing, and maybe a little bit of learning.

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Honestly, I gave it two weeks before the kids figure out how to build a burner iPad underneath their desk.

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Oh, and while all this is going on, astronomers are still tracking the interstellar object called 3i Atlas that's hurtling towards earth faster than anything that we've ever tracked.

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And all the experts have no idea if it's a comet or a rock or an asteroid or Jeff Bezos latest delivery drone.

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Some are even saying it could be an alien ship.

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Now, that's probably a little Far fetched.

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But it is acting weird.

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Its closest approach to the Earth is going to be on December 19, and then it disappears behind the sun until who knows when.

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And all that means is that we won't know if it's a problem until it's a little bit too late.

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But don't worry, the Fed's still going to be buying bonds even after our alien overlords are on the way to take over.

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So to wrap it up, the government's broke, but spending like a trust fund.

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Kid housing's rigged by Wall street, but half the metro areas are tanking.

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Consumers are broke, corporations are broke, but McDonald's robots are still thriving.

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And Texas kids just lost their phones, Australia lost their bedrooms.

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And maybe we're all about to lose to an alien.

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Comment?

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Welcome to America in 2025.

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More debt, fewer jobs, higher prices, stranger headlines.

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And that is Mike's mind, where logic goes to die.

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But conspiracies keep compounding, like a U.S. congressman's stock portfolio.

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All right, let's move on out of that crazy land into our seller tip of the week.

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So here's the thing about selling a house.

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The first few weeks you're listing is live.

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That is your Super Bowl.

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That's when your property is shiny fresh and every buyer's agent has a bookmark to show.

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And if you price it right, that's when you're most likely to get a strong offer and maybe even multiple bids.

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But here's where a lot of sellers mess up.

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They price it too high out of the gate, thinking that they can always come back down later.

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And as any good realtor would tell you, that is a big mistake.

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Because when they do finally cut the price, which they often do, buyers don't look at it as a discount and they look at it like blood in the water.

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They think if the seller is already dropped the price once, they will probably take even less.

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And guess what?

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They're usually right.

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With that strategy, you've just invited Lowball City.

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Now, on the flip side, if you price the home aggressively from the start, not giving it away, but hitting the market very sharply, you can actually spark competition.

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Because that's when buyers start saying, this is a great deal.

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We better move fast because this one's not going to last.

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And that is how you can end up with multiple offers, sometimes even driving the final sale price above your asking.

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And as an extra sweet little bonus, you probably won't have to hand out closing costs concessions like it's a Halloween candy just to get the deal done.

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It's kind of like dating apps.

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Nobody swipes right on the profile that's been sitting there for six months.

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Fresh face at the right price, and suddenly everybody's interested.

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So the tip this week for sellers is simple.

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Price your home right the first time.

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Your best shot for top dollar is in those first couple of weeks.

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And if you miss it, you're going to be chasing the market downhill.

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All right, let's dive into our final segment of the day where we talk about some AI, because that is where everything is headed.

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And if you don't know about it and you haven't learned about it, you better start.

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So this week's AI workflow takes that first awkward buyer or seller interview.

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You know, the one where they tell you everything from their budget to how much they hate beige countertops, and it turns it into an entire personalized marketing machine.

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One meeting and boom, you've basically cloned a custom CRM profile that will work for you forever.

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So what is this workflow?

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Well, here's how it works.

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First, you record your first conversation with the buyer, seller.

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And it doesn't matter if it's a Zoom call, a FaceTime, or you just hitting record on your iPhone during a coffee shop meeting.

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And this doesn't have to be an uncomfortable request.

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Just let them know that you record all your first meetings to make sure that you don't miss out on any of those tiny details that really matter.

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Then you take that recorded audio and run it through a transcription tool like Otter AI turboscribe, or even the free version of Zoom or Google Meet.

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By the way, Google video calls are free and very easy to record, especially if you have a Gmail account.

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Now, once you have the transcript, you feed it into chat, GPT or even NotebookLM you can.

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And from there, AI becomes your virtual assistant.

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It pulls out all the clients goals, their tone, their likes, their dislikes and quirks, and builds a working profile that you can use to customize every interaction going forward.

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Now, why does this matter?

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Well, you see, most Realtors are still sending the same generic drip campaigns and templated emails from 2010.

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And that's why clients ultimately ghost you.

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Because they're bored and they've seen that stuff all the time.

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But imagine this instead.

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Every email, every property alert, and every follow up actually sounds like you listened to their conversation.

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Not that you don't listen, but you can't remember every little detail all the time.

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And this is why you're going to outsource that valuable memory space to AI.

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So if the client said they were obsessed with natural light, AI reminds you to highlight sun drenched kitchens in their listing.

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If they mentioned that they're terrified of yard work, then the system skips the home with half acre lots.

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That kind of personalization isn't just kind of nice, it's what builds loyalty and referrals.

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And the best part?

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It's built on the data that you already have your own conversation and it's a nice little add on.

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Take whatever notes that you want during that conversation, but make those notes about your ideas and thoughts about the conversation, not what they're saying.

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Like when you think of a good neighborhood, you think they would fit into our price range.

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That seems to make sense.

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Or anything else that you pull out of the idea sky that can help them accomplish their goals.

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Because remember, your brain is for having ideas, it is not for holding them.

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So write them down and give it to the AI as context.

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So then the same chat where your client ran it on about HOA rules for about 15 minutes can now generate your next 12 emails and 10 text messages.

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That is called efficiency my friends.

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And some of the best use cases for these are custom buyer or seller presentation.

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You could feed the transcript into ChatGPT with a prompt like this.

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Using this transcript, create a five slide buyer presentation that highlights the client's goals, price range, preferred home style and any concerns they may have mentioned.

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You can use the transcript for follow up emails.

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Have AI draft a month of personalized follow up messages written in the client's tone.

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So a prompt like draft three casual upbeat emails for a couple excited about buying their first home.

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Focus on affordability and easy maintenance.

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You can also use this for database marketing store that AI generated client profile into Notion, Trello or any of your other CRMs.

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And then down the road when you send holiday emails or check ins, you can filter messages by personality.

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That means the family with kids gets the top five pumpkin patches in their area, while the single guy who loves downtown bars gets the best new cocktail lounges near them.

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And look, if the system ever does become self aware, it's going to start knowing your clients better than you do.

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You might even start sending them birthday cards or gifts before you can remember.

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At that point, basically the robot officially wins Realtor of the year.

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Now what's the cost for this?

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Well, for the recording and transcription, most of it's pretty much free, especially if you use Zoom or a basic Google Meet now chat GPT and Notebook LM.

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They could be free or they could cost about 20 bucks a month.

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And for your storage or CRM integration.

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Usually that is free with Notion or Trello and a bit more if you integrate it with like a Zapier or a fancy CRM.

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So basically for about $50 a month you could automate your client personalization like you're running a Fortune 500 marketing form.

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So here's the workflow.

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Record the client interview, transcribe it with Otter AI or TurboScribe or that native, you know, Zoom or Google feature, upload the transcript to Chat GPT or Notebook lm.

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Generate custom presentations, emails, transcripts and notes and save that client profile in your CRM for future campaigns.

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So there you go.

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One meeting with your client and suddenly you have a customized presentation, follow up system and long term marketing strategy built around their personality.

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All things to AI.

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So that's just another robot that did more for your real estate business than Congress did for housing this year.

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All right guys, that's all for today.

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Quick little recap.

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The Fed might finally be cutting rates soon.

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Texas housing is basically four different markets in a trench coat and your clients care more about payments than the actual rate.

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Headline.

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Look, real estate never makes total sense.

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But if you stay sharp, communicate clearly and adapt fast, you are going to keep winning.

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So stick with me here each and every week where you'll get more market madness, mortgage insight and AI hacks coming your way.

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Until next time, be good.

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Humans just keep grinding because life is what you make, so make it great.

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See you next week.