Mortgage Rate Cut Outlook 2025 | Fed Policy, Housing Trends & Realtor Tips

Mortgage rate cuts are back on the table — but will they actually help buyers, or just push prices higher? In this week’s Texas Real Estate & Finance Podcast, Mike Mills breaks down the Fed’s latest signals, housing market shifts, and the AI tools Realtors can use to stay ahead. If you’re a Realtor navigating 2025 chaos, this one’s for you.
Episode Overview
The Mortgage Rate Cut Outlook 2025 is finally shifting, but what does it actually mean for Realtors, buyers, and sellers? In this episode, Mike Mills dives into the Fed’s Jackson Hole updates, Texas housing market stats, and the impact of inflation vs. jobs data. Realtors will learn:
- Why mortgage rates don’t always follow Fed cuts
- How to frame buyer conversations around payments, not headlines
- Why sellers should price right in the first two weeks
- How AI workflows can turn client interviews into personalized marketing
If you’ve been asking: “How can Realtors prepare clients for rate cuts?” or “What mortgage strategies still work in 2025?” — this episode has the answers.
Key Takeaways
1. Mortgage Rate Cut Outlook Is Complex
The Fed may cut rates in September 2025, but mortgage rates don’t always move in lockstep with Fed policy. Realtors must educate clients that affordability depends on both rates and home prices, not just one headline.
2. Buyer Concessions Beat Price Cuts
A $10,000 price cut lowers a payment by just $65/month, but $10,000 in concessions saves real cash today. Realtors should coach buyers to negotiate concessions rather than chasing small monthly savings.
3. Sellers Must Price Smart Early
The first two weeks on market are critical. Overpricing leads to stagnation, price cuts, and lowball offers, while sharp pricing sparks competition and higher final sales. Realtors must guide sellers to hit the market aggressively.
4. Texas Housing Market Is Splintered
DFW is sliding, Houston is holding strong, Austin is still 17% below its peak, and San Antonio is affordable but cutting prices. Realtors need to tailor strategies to each local market instead of following national headlines.
5. AI Can Personalize Client Experiences
Recording and transcribing the first buyer/seller meeting allows Realtors to use AI (ChatGPT, NotebookLM) to generate presentations, follow-ups, and long-term profiles. For less than $50/month, Realtors can automate personalization like a Fortune 500 marketer.
🔗 Resources
• Podcast Website → https://www.thetexasrealestateandfinancepodcast.com
• Linktree (all links + contact) → https://linktr.ee/mikemillsmortgage
• Mortgage News Daily (rate index source) → https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com
• Otter.ai (transcription tool) → https://otter.ai
• Related Episode → “Mortgage Rate Forecasting: What Realtors Need to Know for 2025”
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00:00 - Mike’s Mind Cold Open – Debt, Robots & Chaos
00:35 - Podcast Intro – Mike Mills & Episode Rundown
02:25 - Current Mortgage Rates & Fed Jackson Hole Recap
07:09 - Realtor Tips – Buyers & Sellers in a Shifting Market
10:20 - Buyer Tip of the Week – Concessions Beat Price Cuts
11:15 - Texas Housing Market Data – Statewide & Major Metros
15:36 - Realtor Outlook – Buyer Leverage & Seller Strategy
16:13 - Agent Tip of the Week – Rate Headlines Lie
17:13 - Mike’s Mind Segment – Debt, BlackRock, Foreign Buyers, Robots & Comet
21:37 - Seller Tip of the Week – Price Right the First Time
23:11 - AI Tip of the Week – Transcripts into Marketing Machines
27:13 - Conclusion – Recap & Signoff
The government's broke, but spending like a trust fund kid housing's rigged by Wall street, but half the metro areas are tanking.
Speaker AConsumers are broke, corporations are broke, but McDonald's robots are still thriving.
Speaker AAnd Texas kids just lost their phones.
Speaker AAustralia lost their bedrooms.
Speaker AAnd maybe we're all about to lose to an alien comet.
Speaker AWelcome to America in 2025.
Speaker AMore debt, fewer jobs, higher prices, stranger headlines.
Speaker AAnd that is Mike's mind, where logic goes to die.
Speaker ABut conspiracies keep compounding.
Speaker ALike a U.S. congressman's stock portfolio, foreign cuts are coming back.
Speaker ABlackRock's game in the housing market.
Speaker ASomewhere in Texas, a robot just took your McDonald's.
Speaker AWelcome to 2025.
Speaker AThis is the Texas Real Estate and Finance podcast, the show for realtors, lenders, and housing pros who want to stay smart, stay sane, and maybe even laugh while we figure out where this market's at.
Speaker AMy name is Mike Mills, a North Texas mortgage banker with Service First Lending.
Speaker AI'm conspiracy fueled, AI obsessed, and your guide through this circus that we all call the housing market.
Speaker ASo this is your market update for the week of August 25th.
Speaker AWhat sort of fun is in store for us today?
Speaker AWell, rate cuts are coming, but inventory is piling up and realtors are finally learning the word concessions.
Speaker ATexas housing, well, DFW stumbling, Austin's kind of hung over, San Antonio's mostly chill, and Houston's just flexing like it owns the place.
Speaker AAlso, Mike's mind is back, and this week it's got debt, explosions, black rock housing scams, and maybe even an alien comment.
Speaker ANo, seriously, we've also got our buyer tip of the week that'll save you $10,000 today instead of $65 a month, an agent tip that explains why rate headlines are fake news with better graphic design, and a seller tip proving that your first two weeks on the market are make or break.
Speaker ASo price it right or die trying.
Speaker APlus, in our AI tip of the week, just one meeting transcript can turn into a fully customized client experience.
Speaker AJust another week in Texas real estate.
Speaker ASo let's dive in before McDonald's robots start flipping houses.
Speaker AAll right, so before we get rolling, you know this.
Speaker AThis podcast is not free to make, and neither are my teenagers car insurance plans.
Speaker ASo here's a short little plug.
Speaker AAgain, my name is Mike Mills.
Speaker AI'm a North Texas mortgage banker, and my job is to make realtors look good and buyers feel like humans instead of just loan numbers.
Speaker ASo if that's your vibe, all my contact information is sitting down in the show notes, easy and if you want to keep this show rolling, the best thing you can do is leave a comment, share with a friend, or smash the like button like it owes you some money.
Speaker AI'm just one guy with a mic and a mortgage license fighting the algorithm.
Speaker AEvery day I I'm here.
Speaker AAll right, plug done.
Speaker ABack to the regularly scheduled madness.
Speaker AAll right, we're going to start off with the ho question that I hear more often than Trump calls Pal a and just like pal, my answer changes every week depending on which economic dumpster fire is currently burning.
Speaker ASo hey Mike, what are the rates?
Speaker AWell, according to Mortgage News Daily, as of August 25, 2025, the 30 year fixed conventional mortgage rate is around 6.52.
Speaker AThe average 15 year fixed conventional rate is about 5.90.
Speaker AThe average 30 year FHA rate is about 6.11, the average 30 year VA rate is about 6.13, and the average 30 year jumbo rate is sitting at around 6.50 right now.
Speaker ANow, to be clear, these are average market rate index numbers from Mortgage News Daily and may not reflect the specific rates that you qualify for.
Speaker AMortgage rates vary widely depending on your credit score, loan type, down payment, and more.
Speaker ASo talk to a licensed mortgage professional like me or your local lender.
Speaker AAll right.
Speaker ACFPB approves, though I think these days they're down to like five employees in a fax machine.
Speaker ABut anyway, so as of this weekend, it finally feels like we're starting to move in the direction that everyone in the real estate industry has been hoping for the last three years.
Speaker ARate cuts are coming.
Speaker ANow, what happened last week?
Speaker AWell, the Fed held its annual meeting at Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
Speaker AAnd this meeting isn't just where they decide what to do about rates, but it's ultimately held to foster open in depth discussions among central bankers, policymakers, economists and thought leaders about pressing economic issues and long term policy changes.
Speaker AIn reality, this is just another spot that elites get to have a meeting in a really awesome location and decide how the rest of us are going to continue to give them all our money, all 1 percentage point at a time.
Speaker ABut I digress.
Speaker ASo before Powell spoke on Thursday, the CME Fed Watch tool, which predicts the odds of a rate cut, had it at about 76% that would happen in September.
Speaker ABut after Powell spoke, the odds went up to 89%.
Speaker ASo it wasn't a sure thing.
Speaker ABut it was for sure, much more likely.
Speaker ASo what caused this change?
Speaker AWell, first you have to understand that the Fed has what's called a dual mandate price Stability and full employment.
Speaker ASo most of the factors that help the Fed make up their mind on if they plan to cut rates or not come down to inflation and unemployment numbers.
Speaker ASo, typically, if inflation is high and or unemployment is low, then rate cuts are unlikely.
Speaker ABut if inflation is low and or unemployment is rising, then rate cuts are more likely to occur.
Speaker ABut right now, inflation is still rising in many cases, and at the same time, the labor market is getting weaker.
Speaker AAnd this is all based off the latest CPI and employment data that we got from the bls.
Speaker ASo we got inflation numbers that are suggesting rates should remain high, but a weakening labor market that indicates that the Fed should start to look to cut.
Speaker ASo, Mr.
Speaker APals in kind of a pickle right here.
Speaker AYou see, in early August, the jobs report came in so bad that the CME Fed watch tool instantly priced in a 94.9% chance of a September rate cut.
Speaker AWhy was this?
Speaker AWell, the job revisions in that report were catastrophic.
Speaker AYou see, May jobs revised from 144,000 down to just 19,000, and June jobs were revised from 147,000 down to just 14,000.
Speaker AThat's over 250,000 jobs in two months.
Speaker AThat is massive.
Speaker AAnd then the July jobs report that expected to come in at 120,000 jobs only came in at 73.
Speaker AAnd given the job revision history, it is very likely that those July numbers will also be revised down as well, and they may even go negative in jobs created.
Speaker ASo that's not just a slowdown.
Speaker AThat is the labor market falling into a ditch.
Speaker AIt was so bad, in fact, that Trump fired the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor and Statistics.
Speaker ANow, right or wrong, BLS data has felt a little sketchy ever since COVID It's either hiding information or it's really running broken algorithms.
Speaker ANow, I'm not saying the commissioner deserved it, but Trump went full apprentice 2005 all on her.
Speaker AYou see, he was fine in the past when the revisions made Biden look bad, but the second it hurt his own economy, boom, you fired.
Speaker ANow, Wall street, of course, cheered like a bunch of tweens at a K pop concert because bad jobs data means cheaper money.
Speaker ABecause at that point, rate cuts were basically baked in.
Speaker ABut then the inflation numbers strutted in like Thanos, ready to ruin the party.
Speaker AYou see, core PCE, and that's the Fed's favorite measure, stalled at around 2.9 to 3.1% and absolutely refusing to go down.
Speaker AAnd many feel that the tariffs were responsible for this.
Speaker AAnd after that, suddenly the national narrative flipped.
Speaker AInstead of rate cuts or a lock, it became how can the Fed cut rates with inflation still raging on?
Speaker AAnd although it did increase slightly, it didn't really move beyond what the expectation was in the inflation data before it came out.
Speaker ASo the Fed looking at those numbers because they met expectations, seemed to have less of an impact than the jobs report numbers which ultimately are the main focus right now.
Speaker AAnd at that meeting, Powell even stated that inflation was expected to rise and possibly just a one time blip on the radar because of the tariffs that were imposed, meaning that it's expected to be very short lived and not that long lasting.
Speaker AAnd he also stated that he felt the labor market was more important to the overall health of the economy and therefore could possibly warrant a rate cut.
Speaker AAnd so after that meeting on Friday, you saw all the asset prices spike up with the expectation of looser monetary policy on a go forward basis.
Speaker AAnd all that just means that markets expect cheaper money coming our way very soon.
Speaker ASo will the Fed cut rates in September?
Speaker AWell, as of right now, everybody's pretty much betting on that.
Speaker AAnd markets of course are reacting accordingly.
Speaker AAnd that is why you are seeing now in the bond market more money moving into mortgage backed securities.
Speaker ATherefore, mortgage rates are starting to inch down into the mid to low sixes and in some cases even the high 5% range.
Speaker ASo what do we tell our clients based on this information?
Speaker AWell, for buyers, let them know that rates are coming down, but don't assume that this is going to continue.
Speaker AIt could absolutely, for sure.
Speaker ABut we also just added another trillion dollars to the national debt over just the last 48 days.
Speaker AAnd mortgage rates also tie closely to the 10 year treasury yield.
Speaker AAnd as debt increases, so does that yield and can cause mortgage rates to go up.
Speaker ASo the rate cut will give some relief for rates for sure, but it may not last very long.
Speaker ASo encourage them to take advantage while they can.
Speaker ABut if rates do continue to fall, demand for housing could also heat up pretty quickly, meaning that home prices may actually rise and offset the benefit of slightly lower rates.
Speaker ASo the waiting for rates to drop further strategy could backfire if the market suddenly surges.
Speaker ASo remind your buyers if they can afford a home right now, long locking in today's price could be smarter than gambling on tomorrow's rate.
Speaker AAnd for sellers, well in Texas, inventory is definitely higher than it was last year, but still not enough to push prices down in any meaningful way.
Speaker AAnd so a lot of would be sellers are sitting on the sidelines because they also have to buy.
Speaker ABut there's a catch there.
Speaker ABecause if rates do slip, demand could spike and again drive prices higher.
Speaker AAnd that sounds good if you are only selling, but if you also need to buy, waiting could mean paying more for your next home.
Speaker APlus, once rates do ease up, some more, listings could also start to flood the market from those sellers that have been waiting, creating more competition for their property.
Speaker ASo listing now, or at least just getting ready, positions your sellers ahead of the wave.
Speaker ANow, looking ahead, all eyes are going to be on the Fed September 17th meeting.
Speaker ABut the expectation of a cut will already be baked into the market by that time.
Speaker AOnce the meeting actually happens and they announce the rate cuts in a weird, crazy way, you could actually see rates tick up a little bit.
Speaker ALook, I've been tracking this stuff for 15 years and often when rate cuts finally are officially announced, rates tend to tick up a little bit because that expectation was already priced into the market.
Speaker AAnd so therefore the market adjusts back in the other direction some.
Speaker ABut the Fed's next meeting is basically the season finale of this year's monetary soap opera.
Speaker AWill they cut or will they hold?
Speaker AEither way, the decision is going to set the tone for mortgage rates headed into the fall.
Speaker AAnd you know what?
Speaker ATrying to predict where rates are going to go is like trying to predict my 17 year old daughter's mood after a long day of school.
Speaker AIt's unpredictable, potentially volatile and dangerous if I ask too many questions.
Speaker ASo the best strategy is just let it play out and adjust your expectations accordingly.
Speaker ABecause right now there is a ton of uncertainty out there.
Speaker AConflicting data, political posturing and global conflicts.
Speaker AIt is absolute chaos.
Speaker ASo I don't know exactly where rates are headed, but I do know this.
Speaker AAll you can control is you.
Speaker ASo position yourself as the go to realtor in your market.
Speaker ABecause when people do decide to move, and they will, and it's often all at once, you'll be the one ready to serve them.
Speaker ASo build your processes, market your ass off and be ready for when the phone rings.
Speaker ABecause we could be on the verge of this housing market turning a corner.
Speaker AWhich means Christmas could finally come for all of us.
Speaker ASurviving Tiny Tim's in this post Covid housing market.
Speaker ASo stay ready and make sure that you aren't a secret agent that no one can find when they're ready to pull the trigger.
Speaker AAnd just one final note on this.
Speaker AAs rates come down and debt continues to explode, the safest place to have your money right now is in assets, stocks, bonds, heck, even crypto.
Speaker AAnd yes, of course, you guessed it, real estate.
Speaker ABecause as cash is devalued assets will continue to go up in value.
Speaker AAnd if you want to protect your wealth, an appreciating asset like real estate isn't a bad place to store your cash.
Speaker AJust saying.
Speaker AAll right, let's move on to our buyer.
Speaker ATip of the week.
Speaker ASo here's the thing that I keep telling buyers in this market.
Speaker ADon't get fixated on the sales price.
Speaker AI know it sounds backwards, but let's look at the math a little bit.
Speaker ASo let's say you negotiate $10,000 off the price of a home.
Speaker ASounds great, right?
Speaker ABut in reality, that only lowers your payment by about $65 a month.
Speaker AThat's right, 65 bucks.
Speaker AThat is one trip to Chipotle with a teenager.
Speaker ANow, if you were to take that same $10,000 as a seller concession, you, meaning that the seller pays your closing costs, that's $10,000 in your pocket today.
Speaker AReal cash that you do not have to bring to the table.
Speaker ASo if you do the math, $65 a month would take you almost 13 years to get back that same $10,000 that you gave up on the front end of the transaction.
Speaker A13 years.
Speaker ANow, I don't know about you, but I'd rather have that money right now.
Speaker ABecause as the old saying goes, one in the hand is worth two in the bush.
Speaker AAnd let's be real, those countertops that you want, they're not going to pay for themselves.
Speaker ASo here's the takeaway for realtors and buyers.
Speaker APush for concessions.
Speaker AIn this market, sellers are more flexible than they've been in years.
Speaker ASo don't leave money on the table, chasing a lower price tag.
Speaker AGo for the cash.
Speaker AThat helps you.
Speaker AAll right, let's go into a little housing data.
Speaker ASo right now, Texas housing feels like a rodeo where half the riders have fallen off their bulls, but the announcer keeps yelling, everything's fine, folks.
Speaker AYou see, statewide prices have basically flatlined.
Speaker AInventory is exploding like a bucky's parking lot on labor day.
Speaker AAnd sellers are finally realizing that buyers don't have to show up with cash.
Speaker AA prayer and a blood oath to just to get a house anymore, because buyers are in full control in almost everywhere.
Speaker ABut the demand for some areas is still pretty strong.
Speaker ASo let's look at the numbers.
Speaker ASo right now, Texas overall is looking well, stable if you're an optimist, but a little sluggish if you're a seller.
Speaker AThe median sales price right now is about $335,000 statewide in July, and that's basically flat from last year.
Speaker ASo it's up about 0.3% year over year.
Speaker AAnd that's not a lot, but it certainly is not crashing.
Speaker APrices are still rising, even if just slightly.
Speaker ANow the average home value is around $304,000, which is actually down 2.4% from last year.
Speaker ASo here's where you start to see some of the cracks.
Speaker ABut that's just because homes are taking those price cuts from the highest values that they've ever seen.
Speaker ASo you would expect this value number to come down just a little bit.
Speaker AWhat about sales volume?
Speaker AWell, in July, we sold about 29, 000 homes in Texas.
Speaker AAnd that's a dip from last year because for the first quarter of 2025, sales were down by about 1.5%.
Speaker ABut that's not as bad as what most of you probably thought.
Speaker ASo the market is down, but again, not dramatically.
Speaker AWhat about the number of days on the market?
Speaker AWell, right now we're sitting at about 72 days on average, and that's up a couple full week from last year.
Speaker ASo it's not forever, but it's long enough for your sign sitting in the yard that says for sale to start blending into the scenery a little bit.
Speaker ASo you gotta keep it fresh, guys.
Speaker AChange it up a little bit.
Speaker AInventory or active listings are up about 30 to 35% year over year, which puts us at about 4.8 months of supply for the entire state.
Speaker AAnd for context, a balanced market is about six months.
Speaker ASo buyers have options and sellers don't get to play diva anymore.
Speaker AWith this many houses available.
Speaker ABut with supply not all the way back, you can definitely see why prices have stayed stable.
Speaker AAll right, so let's look at a few metro areas individually.
Speaker ASo Dallas, Fort Worth, where I live, the median home price is around 380 to 400,000.
Speaker AThat's actually down about 1.4% from last year.
Speaker AInventory, it keeps rising like my blood pressure during cowboy games.
Speaker ASales are certainly slowing.
Speaker ASellers are cutting prices a little more often.
Speaker AOverall, DFW is shifting the fastest towards a buyer's market.
Speaker AWhat about Houston?
Speaker AWell, median prices there about 350 to 370 and actually saw a little bit of growth about two and a half percent from last year.
Speaker AEven though inventory is up by about 38%, demand is still strong enough to hold those prices steady.
Speaker AAnd right now, by far, Houston's the most resilient of the big four areas in Texas.
Speaker AKind of like the cockroach of Texas housing.
Speaker AIt's got floods, inflation and tariffs, but prices still seem to be creeping up.
Speaker AWhat About Austin?
Speaker AWell, the median price there is about 435,000 to 450,000, and that's down about 2 to 3% year over year, but still sitting 17% below the peak in 2022.
Speaker ASo in Austin, buyers got more leverage.
Speaker AThey're not bidding over list anymore, and they're negotiating pretty hard.
Speaker ABut overall, Austin is still expensive, but at least the days of name your price are over.
Speaker AAnd in San Antonio, the median home price is around $310,000, making it the most affordable of all the big metro areas.
Speaker ANow, the year over year price change is anywhere from flat to about 2% higher.
Speaker AAnd right now, their inventory is close to about five months worth of supply.
Speaker AAnd overall, in San Antonio, sellers are chopping prices by an average of about $15,000 per sale.
Speaker ASo if you want affordability and a really good shot at concessions, Alamo City is your best bet.
Speaker ASo basically, it's this.
Speaker ADallas is sliding, Houston's holding, Austin's still coming off it's hangover, and San Antonio's like your reliable cousin who shows up with a six pack and just vibes with you all afternoon.
Speaker ASo, so what does this mean if you were out trying to buy or sell in Texas?
Speaker AWell, statewide, we are officially in shift mode.
Speaker AWe're not crashing, but we're definitely not in a frenzy anymore.
Speaker AInventory starting to stack up.
Speaker ADays on market are getting longer, and sellers are starting to realize that they're not holding all the cards.
Speaker ASo for your buyers, this is the most leverage that they've had in years.
Speaker AMore homes on longer timelines, fewer bidding wars, and you can actually ask for concessions anytime you want.
Speaker APay your closing costs, repairs, heck, even get a new fridge if you play your cards right.
Speaker ABut remember, don't get too comfortable if rates deep.
Speaker AIf rates dip even just a little bit, demand could flood back into the market overnight.
Speaker AAnd suddenly your negotiating power evaporates.
Speaker ANow, for sellers, you can still get a solid price for your home, but you've got to play it smart.
Speaker APrice cuts are becoming the norm.
Speaker AHouston averages about $12,000 off the original list price in San Antonio, like I said, is about $15,000 off the original list price.
Speaker ASo waiting to list may not be your friend if you also plan on buying, because again, if rates fall, buyer demand could push prices up.
Speaker ASounds great when you sell, but not so great when you turn around and buy, so your seller's positioning and presentation matter more than ever.
Speaker AStage the house, price it right, and be willing to negotiate.
Speaker ASo there you have it.
Speaker ATexas housing.
Speaker AAs we head into the fall of 2025 is less of a seller stampede and more of a slow dance where buyers actually get to pick the song.
Speaker ADFW stumbling a little bit, Houston's flexing, Austin sobering up, and San Antonio's just keeping it kind of cool.
Speaker ABut don't get too cozy.
Speaker AMarkets can turn very fast.
Speaker AOne Fed move, one dip in rates, and we can see this whole thing flip on its head.
Speaker AAll right, next up, we've got our agent.
Speaker ATip of the so you ever had a buyer come in all pumped up because they saw a headline that said rates dropped to six and a half percent?
Speaker AThen you pull out their pre approval, and suddenly it's not six and a half, it's 7.1%.
Speaker AAnd now they look like a kid who just found out Disney World was closed.
Speaker AYou see, here's the problem with all those rate headlines, their averages.
Speaker ASometimes they're clickbait and they're built for eyeballs and not for actual borrowers.
Speaker AAnd if you set your buyer's expectation based on a headline, you're setting yourself up for a very rough ride.
Speaker ASo here's how I would suggest you frame it.
Speaker ADon't let rate lead the conversation.
Speaker ALet the house lead the conversation.
Speaker ALet the life change lead the conversation.
Speaker AGet your buyers excited about the move.
Speaker ANew kitchen, shorter commute, better schools.
Speaker AThen let your preferred lender break the news on the rate.
Speaker ABecause sometimes the lender comes in higher, sometimes they come in lower.
Speaker ABut either way, it's personalized because it's based on their credit, their down payment, and their debt picture.
Speaker AAnd a headline has nothing to do with that.
Speaker AAnd here's the reality of the situation.
Speaker ABuyers don't actually care about rates.
Speaker ANot really.
Speaker AWhat they care about is the payment.
Speaker ACan I afford this each month without having to live off ramen?
Speaker AThat's ultimately the question.
Speaker AAnd a small shift in rates might move the payment 25, 50 if a big enough one, maybe sometimes 100 bucks.
Speaker ABut that's a date night, not a disaster.
Speaker ASo remember this when guiding your buyers.
Speaker ARates are psychological.
Speaker AThey are not necessarily mathematical.
Speaker ADon't let a headline kill their dream before it even starts.
Speaker AKeep the focus on the home, the payment, and the life that they want.
Speaker AAnd then let your lender have the rate talk, because it's pretty much their lane anyway.
Speaker AAll right, let's move on to my favorite segment, because in this one, I get to dump my brain salad onto the airwaves and tell you all about the crazy stuff that I see every week and what's going on in my Brain.
Speaker AWelcome to Mike's Mind, the only segment where US debt, housing scams, alien comments, and McDonald's robots all somehow make sense in the same online rant.
Speaker AWell, buckle up, because reality has officially jumped the shark this week.
Speaker ABut let's start with the US Government, because right now, they're making it rain like a broke rapper on his last weekend in Vegas.
Speaker AYou see, in the last.
Speaker AThe last 48 days, we've added $1 trillion to the national debt.
Speaker AThat's 21 billion a day since August 11th.
Speaker AAnd remember when they told us that the economy was strong?
Speaker AApparently it's so strong that we're spending at World War II levels.
Speaker AExcept back then, at least we got tanks and victory parades.
Speaker ANow we're just getting tick tock bans and potholes.
Speaker AAnd while the government's playing Monopoly with their fake money, BlackRock and private equity firms are running the ultimate housing scam.
Speaker ASo get this.
Speaker AThey buy an entire neighborhood of homes at about $300,000 each.
Speaker AThey sit on them until the place looks like a ghost town construction site, then flip a couple to themselves for 700,000.
Speaker ASuddenly, every house in the neighborhood is worth $700,000.
Speaker ASo congratulations, you've just been priced out of your own hometown.
Speaker ABut the good news is, they still get to rent it back to you for a fortune.
Speaker AIt's kind of like being mugged and handed the bill for the crowbar.
Speaker AMeanwhile, median household wealth among homeowners is 3,700% more than renters.
Speaker AYeah, that's not a typo.
Speaker A3,700%.
Speaker ASo when your buddy says renting gives me flexibility, what he really means is I'm flexible enough to get bent over by BlackRock.
Speaker AAnd speaking of housing, 39 of the top 50 metros in the US saw month over month price declines for the first time in U.S. history.
Speaker AAnd Redfin now says that we have half a million more home sellers than home buyers.
Speaker ASo the dating pool of real estate looks like a sad middle school dance.
Speaker ASellers on one side, buyers on the other, and no one's making a move until the DJ drops the electric slide.
Speaker AAnd somehow all the buyers that we do have out there are foreign buyers scooping up all of the Texas suburbs with almost half of those purchases being non residents.
Speaker ASo that neighborhood that your dad grew up.
Speaker ACongrats.
Speaker AIt's now an international investment product.
Speaker AWho needs block parties when we've got global capital inflows?
Speaker ABut how are consumers doing?
Speaker AWell, they're holding on by a thread.
Speaker ASiri's credit card Delinquencies are at 12.3%, and that's the highest since 2011.
Speaker AAuto loan delinquencies are up to 5%, and that's just a hair under record levels.
Speaker AStudent loan delinquencies, well, they're up 9.4 percentage points in the last two quarters.
Speaker ABasically, Americans are drowning in debt while inflation's turned eggs into a luxury item.
Speaker AYes, eggs.
Speaker AThey're up 157% in the last five years.
Speaker AForget gold bars.
Speaker AI'm holding cartons of H E B eggs in my safe.
Speaker AAnd it's not just households that are cracking.
Speaker A446 large companies filed for bankruptcy this year, and that's already 12% above pandemic levels.
Speaker AJuly alone had the most since July of 2020.
Speaker ACompanies right now are folding faster than lawn chairs at the tailgate.
Speaker ABut hey, not everything is doom and gloom because Taylor Sheridan, the mastermind behind Yellowstone and Landman, is building the biggest film studio in Texas.
Speaker ASo that's great.
Speaker AWhen the rest of the economy collapses, at least we'll have high definition cowboy dramas to binge on while we're eating our $10 eggs.
Speaker AAnd speaking of collapse, Australia is now considering a bedroom tax, so they're going to be charging people for not using all the bedrooms in their home.
Speaker AGuess the government motto is what is yours and what is ours is still ours.
Speaker AAnd you think that's crazy?
Speaker AWell, give it about five years because the IRS will be auditing your garage fridge for all those expensive food items.
Speaker AAnd Speaking of food, McDonald's just opened an all robot location in Texas.
Speaker ANo employees.
Speaker AThe food's cooked, served, and charged entirely by AI because what Americans really needed was fewer jobs, less human interaction, and a world where a robot can screw up your mcflurry just as well as Walter used to.
Speaker AAnd if you're wondering how the kids are handling this crazy new world, well, Texas just banned cell phones in the classroom.
Speaker ANo more tiktoks during algebra, no more Snapchats under the desk.
Speaker AJust old school boredom, pencil chewing, and maybe a little bit of learning.
Speaker AHonestly, I gave it two weeks before the kids figure out how to build a burner iPad underneath their desk.
Speaker AOh, and while all this is going on, astronomers are still tracking the interstellar object called 3i Atlas that's hurtling towards earth faster than anything that we've ever tracked.
Speaker AAnd all the experts have no idea if it's a comet or a rock or an asteroid or Jeff Bezos latest delivery drone.
Speaker ASome are even saying it could be an alien ship.
Speaker ANow, that's probably a little Far fetched.
Speaker ABut it is acting weird.
Speaker AIts closest approach to the Earth is going to be on December 19, and then it disappears behind the sun until who knows when.
Speaker AAnd all that means is that we won't know if it's a problem until it's a little bit too late.
Speaker ABut don't worry, the Fed's still going to be buying bonds even after our alien overlords are on the way to take over.
Speaker ASo to wrap it up, the government's broke, but spending like a trust fund.
Speaker AKid housing's rigged by Wall street, but half the metro areas are tanking.
Speaker AConsumers are broke, corporations are broke, but McDonald's robots are still thriving.
Speaker AAnd Texas kids just lost their phones, Australia lost their bedrooms.
Speaker AAnd maybe we're all about to lose to an alien.
Speaker AComment?
Speaker AWelcome to America in 2025.
Speaker AMore debt, fewer jobs, higher prices, stranger headlines.
Speaker AAnd that is Mike's mind, where logic goes to die.
Speaker ABut conspiracies keep compounding, like a U.S. congressman's stock portfolio.
Speaker AAll right, let's move on out of that crazy land into our seller tip of the week.
Speaker ASo here's the thing about selling a house.
Speaker AThe first few weeks you're listing is live.
Speaker AThat is your Super Bowl.
Speaker AThat's when your property is shiny fresh and every buyer's agent has a bookmark to show.
Speaker AAnd if you price it right, that's when you're most likely to get a strong offer and maybe even multiple bids.
Speaker ABut here's where a lot of sellers mess up.
Speaker AThey price it too high out of the gate, thinking that they can always come back down later.
Speaker AAnd as any good realtor would tell you, that is a big mistake.
Speaker ABecause when they do finally cut the price, which they often do, buyers don't look at it as a discount and they look at it like blood in the water.
Speaker AThey think if the seller is already dropped the price once, they will probably take even less.
Speaker AAnd guess what?
Speaker AThey're usually right.
Speaker AWith that strategy, you've just invited Lowball City.
Speaker ANow, on the flip side, if you price the home aggressively from the start, not giving it away, but hitting the market very sharply, you can actually spark competition.
Speaker ABecause that's when buyers start saying, this is a great deal.
Speaker AWe better move fast because this one's not going to last.
Speaker AAnd that is how you can end up with multiple offers, sometimes even driving the final sale price above your asking.
Speaker AAnd as an extra sweet little bonus, you probably won't have to hand out closing costs concessions like it's a Halloween candy just to get the deal done.
Speaker AIt's kind of like dating apps.
Speaker ANobody swipes right on the profile that's been sitting there for six months.
Speaker AFresh face at the right price, and suddenly everybody's interested.
Speaker ASo the tip this week for sellers is simple.
Speaker APrice your home right the first time.
Speaker AYour best shot for top dollar is in those first couple of weeks.
Speaker AAnd if you miss it, you're going to be chasing the market downhill.
Speaker AAll right, let's dive into our final segment of the day where we talk about some AI, because that is where everything is headed.
Speaker AAnd if you don't know about it and you haven't learned about it, you better start.
Speaker ASo this week's AI workflow takes that first awkward buyer or seller interview.
Speaker AYou know, the one where they tell you everything from their budget to how much they hate beige countertops, and it turns it into an entire personalized marketing machine.
Speaker AOne meeting and boom, you've basically cloned a custom CRM profile that will work for you forever.
Speaker ASo what is this workflow?
Speaker AWell, here's how it works.
Speaker AFirst, you record your first conversation with the buyer, seller.
Speaker AAnd it doesn't matter if it's a Zoom call, a FaceTime, or you just hitting record on your iPhone during a coffee shop meeting.
Speaker AAnd this doesn't have to be an uncomfortable request.
Speaker AJust let them know that you record all your first meetings to make sure that you don't miss out on any of those tiny details that really matter.
Speaker AThen you take that recorded audio and run it through a transcription tool like Otter AI turboscribe, or even the free version of Zoom or Google Meet.
Speaker ABy the way, Google video calls are free and very easy to record, especially if you have a Gmail account.
Speaker ANow, once you have the transcript, you feed it into chat, GPT or even NotebookLM you can.
Speaker AAnd from there, AI becomes your virtual assistant.
Speaker AIt pulls out all the clients goals, their tone, their likes, their dislikes and quirks, and builds a working profile that you can use to customize every interaction going forward.
Speaker ANow, why does this matter?
Speaker AWell, you see, most Realtors are still sending the same generic drip campaigns and templated emails from 2010.
Speaker AAnd that's why clients ultimately ghost you.
Speaker ABecause they're bored and they've seen that stuff all the time.
Speaker ABut imagine this instead.
Speaker AEvery email, every property alert, and every follow up actually sounds like you listened to their conversation.
Speaker ANot that you don't listen, but you can't remember every little detail all the time.
Speaker AAnd this is why you're going to outsource that valuable memory space to AI.
Speaker ASo if the client said they were obsessed with natural light, AI reminds you to highlight sun drenched kitchens in their listing.
Speaker AIf they mentioned that they're terrified of yard work, then the system skips the home with half acre lots.
Speaker AThat kind of personalization isn't just kind of nice, it's what builds loyalty and referrals.
Speaker AAnd the best part?
Speaker AIt's built on the data that you already have your own conversation and it's a nice little add on.
Speaker ATake whatever notes that you want during that conversation, but make those notes about your ideas and thoughts about the conversation, not what they're saying.
Speaker ALike when you think of a good neighborhood, you think they would fit into our price range.
Speaker AThat seems to make sense.
Speaker AOr anything else that you pull out of the idea sky that can help them accomplish their goals.
Speaker ABecause remember, your brain is for having ideas, it is not for holding them.
Speaker ASo write them down and give it to the AI as context.
Speaker ASo then the same chat where your client ran it on about HOA rules for about 15 minutes can now generate your next 12 emails and 10 text messages.
Speaker AThat is called efficiency my friends.
Speaker AAnd some of the best use cases for these are custom buyer or seller presentation.
Speaker AYou could feed the transcript into ChatGPT with a prompt like this.
Speaker AUsing this transcript, create a five slide buyer presentation that highlights the client's goals, price range, preferred home style and any concerns they may have mentioned.
Speaker AYou can use the transcript for follow up emails.
Speaker AHave AI draft a month of personalized follow up messages written in the client's tone.
Speaker ASo a prompt like draft three casual upbeat emails for a couple excited about buying their first home.
Speaker AFocus on affordability and easy maintenance.
Speaker AYou can also use this for database marketing store that AI generated client profile into Notion, Trello or any of your other CRMs.
Speaker AAnd then down the road when you send holiday emails or check ins, you can filter messages by personality.
Speaker AThat means the family with kids gets the top five pumpkin patches in their area, while the single guy who loves downtown bars gets the best new cocktail lounges near them.
Speaker AAnd look, if the system ever does become self aware, it's going to start knowing your clients better than you do.
Speaker AYou might even start sending them birthday cards or gifts before you can remember.
Speaker AAt that point, basically the robot officially wins Realtor of the year.
Speaker ANow what's the cost for this?
Speaker AWell, for the recording and transcription, most of it's pretty much free, especially if you use Zoom or a basic Google Meet now chat GPT and Notebook LM.
Speaker AThey could be free or they could cost about 20 bucks a month.
Speaker AAnd for your storage or CRM integration.
Speaker AUsually that is free with Notion or Trello and a bit more if you integrate it with like a Zapier or a fancy CRM.
Speaker ASo basically for about $50 a month you could automate your client personalization like you're running a Fortune 500 marketing form.
Speaker ASo here's the workflow.
Speaker ARecord the client interview, transcribe it with Otter AI or TurboScribe or that native, you know, Zoom or Google feature, upload the transcript to Chat GPT or Notebook lm.
Speaker AGenerate custom presentations, emails, transcripts and notes and save that client profile in your CRM for future campaigns.
Speaker ASo there you go.
Speaker AOne meeting with your client and suddenly you have a customized presentation, follow up system and long term marketing strategy built around their personality.
Speaker AAll things to AI.
Speaker ASo that's just another robot that did more for your real estate business than Congress did for housing this year.
Speaker AAll right guys, that's all for today.
Speaker AQuick little recap.
Speaker AThe Fed might finally be cutting rates soon.
Speaker ATexas housing is basically four different markets in a trench coat and your clients care more about payments than the actual rate.
Speaker AHeadline.
Speaker ALook, real estate never makes total sense.
Speaker ABut if you stay sharp, communicate clearly and adapt fast, you are going to keep winning.
Speaker ASo stick with me here each and every week where you'll get more market madness, mortgage insight and AI hacks coming your way.
Speaker AUntil next time, be good.
Speaker AHumans just keep grinding because life is what you make, so make it great.
Speaker ASee you next week.