Texas Real Estate Market Shift & The AI Lead Conversion Tools You Should Be Using

Mike Mills00:00:00

Welcome to America. Where the dream used to be homeownership and now it's just not getting evicted before payday.Speaking of dreams, the median age of first time home buyers just hit 38. Which means your starter home now comes with a 401k, student loan debt and a couple of gray hairs like these.We went from buying in your 20s to buying maybe if grandma co signs with us. Housing market broken, or is it just a bit confused? Rates haven't moved in months. Texas is adding homes like we're printing them.And AI might be your new assistant or your new ruler, unless Congress regulates it into retirement. Oh, and Wall Street's flipping trailer parks now. Yeah. Welcome to June. Howdy, y' all. Welcome back to the Texas Real Estate and Finance Podcast.I'm your host, Mike Mills, back from a quite long hiatus, but here again bringing you the latest on mortgages, housing and why your buyers are getting pickier than ever. So if you're a buyer, a seller, or an agent trying to make sense in this wild market, and you have come to the right place.So what's on tap for today's episod episode? Well, first we'll talk mortgage rates. Or as I like to call them, the most consistent thing in an inconsistent economy.Spoiler rates haven't moved much, but I'll break down why and what that means for your buyers and sellers who keep asking, are they dropping yet? Then we're diving into Texas and North Texas housing data.Inventory's up, demand's weird, and some homes are sitting longer than your Joe's Crab Shack leftovers. We'll break down the numbers and what's really going on behind those days on market and price tag stats.After that, it's time for a ride through Mike's mind. Mike being me, of course, where I tell you what's been running through this bald head of mine all week.This week, Congress is fighting trigger leads while Wall street buys up mobile home parks. Bitcoin's breaking records and scientists are turning light into something that breaks physics. If it sounds like chaos, it is, but it's fun chaos.Finally, I'll share this week's AI tool of the week. And it's a good one.We'll look at a digital assistant that never sleeps, never forgets to follow up, and might just be better at converting leads than most humans. For sure. This human. But before we get into the weeds, it's time for everybody's favorite part of the show, the shameless plug. Yeah, I know.Nobody likes asking for business. It feels weird but hey, I've got a mortgage license, not a trust fund.So if you're an agent needing a solid lender who answers the phone, a buyer who wants real answers and not just rate quotes that disappear faster than your Uber eats driver, then let's talk. You can reach me directly. No bots, no AI, no endless phone trees.Just a guy who talks too much but has a serious passion for making home loans make sense. Just check the show notes for all the contact info or just shoot me a message the old fashioned way. Send it in the mail.And oh, by the way, if you like today's show, send it to a friend like comment or whatever you can do to help me solve the algorithm. The show is all me and need all the help I can get. All right, plug over. Let's move on to the good stuff.First, we start with that question that I answer every single day of my life. Mike, what are the rates?Well, according to Mortgage News Daily index, as of June 11, the average 30 year fixed conventional mortgage rate is 6.89, the average 15 year fixed conventional rate is 6.20, the average 30 year FHA rate is 6.43, the average 30 year VA rate is 6.44 and the average jumbo rate is 7.02. Be clear, these are average market rate indexes provided by Mortgage News Daily and may not reflect the specific rates that you qualify.Mortgage rates can vary widely depending on factors like your credit score, loan type and down payment, among others.For accurate information about your personal mortgage options, it's important to speak with a licensed mortgage professional like me or your own lender. There. Disclaimer done. So just to give you an idea of how much mortgage rates haven't moved, my last market update was at the end of February.Yeah, three months ago. I know. Slacker status confirmed. But here's the kicker. Back then, rates were nearly identical to where they are right now.Maybe an eighth of a point higher, tops. That's it.So despite all the market drama, tariffs flying around, and the stock market's doing its usual roller coaster routine, mortgage mortgage rates have basically stood still for the past four months. So why haven't they really changed much? Well, first off, the 10 year treasury yield hasn't moved either.At the end of February, it was hovering around 4 1/2 percent. And today it's still chilling, right? About 4 1/2 percent. Sure, it's dipped a little here and popped up a little there, but nothing really dramatic.Now, if you've been listening to this show or just paid Attention during one of my rants. You know, mortgage rates closely track the 10 year Treasury. So if that yield doesn't move much, neither do mortgage rates.Now you might be asking, if treasuries are 4 and a half percent, why are mortgage rates still close to 7? That's a great question. That difference, roughly 2 and a half percent, is called the spread.It's what banks tack on to cover risk, overhead, and yes, some sweet, sweet profit. That spread can tighten or widen based on investor confidence, bond demand, or even just the mood of Wall street that day.Second reason the Fed hasn't made a move all year. They've kept the Fed funds rate steady in 2024 all the way through. Why? Because nothing in the economic data has really changed that much.Inflation is still sticky, unemployment is holding steady for the most part, and wage growth has slowed but hasn't really reversed. Right now the Fed's just in wait and see mode. And look.Some folks, like President Trump, for example, have argued that the Fed should get ahead of the curve and cut back before the economy softens too much. His point is don't be late to the party like you were with those hikes. Whether they listen or not, that's yet to be determined.Finally, the bond market and global debt dynamics. Here's where it gets a little spicy. Tariffs and global trade.See, when foreign countries think China get cranky about US tariffs, they sometimes start dumping US Treasuries or stop buying new ones. Less demand for US Bonds equals higher yields, and higher yields mean, you guessed it, higher mortgage rates.As of today, when I'm recording this, it seems that China and the US have come to an agreement on the tariffs. So we could see some easing in that soon. But that is also yet to be determined. And then of course, there's the national debt.If Uncle Sam starts racking up IOUs like what has been rumored in the big beautiful spending bill, borrowing gets even more expensive. Think of it as the US trying to get a loan with a shopping addiction and a maxed out credit card. So what would actually drive rates down?Well, here's the not so fun answer. Recession. If the economy starts to stall out, job losses, shrinking, spending, market panic, that's when rates drop.And that drop only happens because investors panic and start flooding into bonds. So yeah, if you or your clients are sitting around dreaming of 4% to 5% rates again, just know that that dream comes with a side of economic pain.Most experts think we're hovering in the 6 and a half to 7% range for the rest of the year unless something big happens. Stock market crash, a full blown recession, or even worse, a war.And while all of those are terrible for humanity, they tend to be excellent for mortgage rates. Now, the Fed's next meeting is June 17, and the expectations are more of the same.Rates are likely going to stay put until September and maybe even later. So get cozy. We've been cruising around this 7% for a while now, and unless something wild happens, that's probably where we're staying.All right, let's move on to housing data for Texas and North Texas. How is the market doing right now? Well, if you're out there actively trying to sell homes, you probably already know the answer.It ain't great, unless of course, you're a buyer. Then it is a little better. But there aren't a ton of those out there either. So let's dig into the numbers and see what the story really is.Let's start with inventory. Right now, Texas inventory is up 31 and a half percent as of May compared to this same time last year. That's 19 straight months of inventory growth.Nationally, listings are hitting a post pandemic high and Texas is leading the charge like we always do. Now, that's good news for buyers because that means there's more options on the menu now.But for sellers, well, time to adjust expectations, not just on price, but on patience. Homes aren't flying off the shelves like they did in 2021.Speaking of time to sell, Texas median days on market is sitting at about 51 days, steady and right in line with national numbers. Now, I know what you're thinking. Wait a minute, Mike. Some of my listings are sitting way longer and others are gone in a weekend.That is true, but here's why. You see, 51 days is a statewide average. If a home is clean, well maintained, in a good location and priced right, it still moves pretty fast.But homes that need work are overpriced or in less desirable areas. Well, those are sitting longer than a DMV line on a Monday morning. And the result?The average days on market is holding steady, at least for right now. Now, home selling above list price dropped to 13.8%. That's down 2.2% from last year.There is still competition for homes in certain areas, but it is kind of starting to fall. Good news for buyers. Again, price cuts are happening on about an average of 33% of the listings on the market and that's up 2.7% from last year.What does this mean? Well, sellers are slowly waking up to Reality, this isn't a name your price market anymore.So the overall takeaway from this is that buyers have more negotiating power and sellers need to those listings shine if they want to catch attention. No longer is this just a throat on the MLS and prey market.Now let's drill down into North Texas specifically and yeah, it gets a little bumpier here. Overall, active listings are up 41.6% from last year and 12.3% from last month. How many sales closed in May?Well, that was about 6400 and that's up 5 and a half percent from April, but down 12 and a half percent from last year.The average list price is about $544,000, but the average sale price is about $478,000 and that's up just slightly from last month and from last year.Now the median days on Market in DFW is sitting at about 45 days and that's down from 56 in March, but still slower than the lightning speed markets of the past. So what does this all mean? Well, more homes are sitting on the market, but many are still closing close to list price.Buyers have options, but sellers, especially those with move in ready homes are still commanding solid prices. So overall we're not crashing, we're just kind of normalizing. So what's the future hold?Well, Texas A and M housing forecast says that we're headed for some continued stability. Basically more listings are going to keep showing up, but we're still kind of playing catch up from the housing shortage over the past few years.The buyers.You may not get a killer deal on price and rate, but you can still negotiate cash savings, concessions, closing costs, maybe even a little buy down magic if you want. So that means if you can swing the down payment, that might be all you need to walk in the door.Sellers, if you need to sell quickly, price it sharp and get the property dialed in, agents, it's your time to market that house like it matters. Because it does.No, we're not headed for a crash unless we see a major event, recession, big unemployment spike, geopolitical mess, or a black swan that we just don't see coming. But for now, we're settling into a more balanced, steady market and that's not really a bad thing.Just remember, it might feel slow, but the market is moving. You just need the right expectations and the right strategy. Stay tuned folks.I will keep you updated on what train is coming down the track next Trigger leads, Quantum Dreams and Rent. That'll break. All right guys, buckle up. Time for your Weekly dive into Mike's mind and it's a scary place to be sometimes.I can tell you we're going to hit on some headlines that sound like conspiracy theories. I'll tell you why the economy makes less sense than your HOA's parking rules. And we'll check in on the American dream. Bad news. She's in therapy.Let's kick it off some good old legislative drama. Congress is voting again on banning trigger leads.These are the ones that when you talk to somebody and they pull your credit, your phone rings a thousand times.They're discussing this again because sure, if someone applies for a mortgage, they definitely want 14 other lenders cold calling them in the middle of dinner. It's like speed dating for debt. But hey, if you're feeling triggered, don't worry, you're not alone.Because while the government debates privacy, Wall Street's out here buying up mobile home parks. One firm spent 300 million on parks in 17 states and jacking up rents 60% in some places.That's right, corporate landlords are now flipping trailers like they're luxury condos. Welcome to America. Where the dream used to be home ownership and now it's just not getting evicted before payday.Speaking of dreams, the median age of first time home buyers just hit 38. Which means your starter home now comes with a 401k student loan debt and a couple of gray hairs like these.We went from buying in your 20s to buying. Maybe if Grandma Co signs with us. But don't worry, the economy's great. Well, yes and no. The S&P 500 is up 20 in just the last 41 days.The NASDAQ up 27%. And Bitcoin just cracked 110,000. The new Bitcoin ETF just blew past 70 billion. That's faster than any ETF in history.Gold's at 30 year highs in global reserves. The stock market's partying like it's 1999. But the bond market is shrinking faster than your savings account, now worth just 68% of the stock market.That's the lowest since the disco era. That's the 70s, in case you guys are really young. Meanwhile, over in the real economy, the credit card debt is at 1.21 trillion.Layoffs over 600,000 just this year alone. Refi denials are at 42% and rising. And the unemployment forecast 4.8% by December.So if the market's on a sugar high, well then the people are living on expired ramen and good vibes. And while everyday Folks are getting denied loans. Congress, on the other hand, is handing the keys to the future to a company called Plantar.Ever heard of them? Well, they just scored big fat contracts to build federal data platforms using AI to link your Social Security info, IRS records, and.And who knows what else. All while a clause in Trump's latest bill bars any state from regulating AI for the next 10 years. So the robots are going to be watching.Don't worry, you can't watch them back. But hey, IBM says they're building a 200 cubit quantum computer by 2029. What the hell does that mean?I really don't know, but it sounds like it'll either revolutionize medicine or accidentally open a portal to another dimension where housing is actually affordable. Oh, and did you know that only 7% of new home construction materials actually come from foreign countries? Well, problem solved.Now the US And Mexico are brokering a new steel tariff deal. So I guess we're cool with imports again. As long as they don't mess with the profit margin.Speaking of profits, remember when licensed mortgage pros were everywhere? In 2022, there were 220,000 of us. Today, just 70,000. That's a drop big enough to qualify for a short sale. But survivors rejoice.We've made it through the hunger Games of home finance. But don't get too comfy, because while the Fed hasn't made any cuts, we still added 3 trillion in new debt over the past 10 years.And that's a conservative estimate, because when you add interest, it jumps closer to 5 trillion. All the while, Plantier watches your data, Congress watches AI and you watch your paycheck get garnished by student loan repayment program.Here's what we got. Fewer loan officers, but more AI, More rent and more renters. More homes, but less affordability.Market highs, but fewer people benefiting scientists, well, they just turned light into a super solid. Solid and fluid. Like your budget. Technically intact, but somehow still leaking everywhere. It is a weird, weird world, folks.One where right now the IRS might get completely axed, Elon's ghosting doge, and gold might outlive the dollar, but it's just another insane day in the simulation. So we'll dive back into my mind next week. Unless, of course, we've been quantum teleported to a new fiscal reality.All right, now on to the main topic for today. Let's talk about a problem that every agent knows all too well.Juggling three inspections, two price reductions in a seller who thinks their house just needs a little bit Better marketing. Then Bing. A lead fills out your home search form or clicks on your Facebook ad. You mean to call them back? Really, you do.But by the time you actually get around to it, 12 hours, maybe a day later, they're gone. Vanish. Ghosted, left on red like a bad Tinder date. Now, here's the part that really makes this scenario a big issue.That lead, they were most interested in you. At the exact moment that they reached out.That's when they were dreaming of upgrading their home, looking to finally sell, or pissed because their landlord raised the rent again for the second time this year in those five 15 to 30 minutes of silence. Their kids needed a ride somewhere.Their husband couldn't find the mustard in the pantry, or worse yet, another agent or five probably beat you to them. That is the problem. And it's a painful one. So what's the solution? Well, as you know, I'm a bit of an AI geek.Regardless of if it's taken over the world or not, I say if you can't beat them, join them. So I want to introduce you to a company called Structurally. No, this isn't an ad they're not paying me, although I wish they would.This is just a tool that I think is very effective. So structurally is like having a digital version of you, minus the coffee addiction and the scheduling conflicts.It's an AI powered chat assistant that talks to your leads 24 hours a day, seven days a week. It follows up instantly, can answer questions like is this still available? Or can I see it this weekend?It keeps the conversation going until you are ready to step in and take the warm handoff. So how does it work? Well, you can connect it to your lead sources, website, forms, Facebook ads, IDX tools, CRMs, you name it.It connects to a lot of outside software. So when a lead comes in, structurally jumps in instantly. Texting or messaging like a human, it qualifies the lead. Are they buying, selling?Have they been pre approved? Where are they looking to move? And it can also keep the conversation alive with follow ups that are smarter than hey, I'm just checking in.This is not a bot that just spits out canned lines. It's very, very conversational, realistic, and it sounds like a team member on your team that actually cares.So the next logical question is, does it actually work? Well, according to Structurally, agents using their software are getting 50 to 60% higher engagement rates with cold leads.And many are saying that it even revives dead leads that haven't replied to them in weeks.In fact, one brokerage reported booking three times more appointments in the first 30 days using the software because it's like cloning your best inside sales rep without training turnover or the Starbucks bill. So what's it cost then?Well, this is where it gets a little sticky because structurally isn't the cheapest tool that's out there, but it is way more affordable than losing leads that right now are the most precious commodity in our industry. So plans start around $179 a month for solo agents and you can scale up for teams and brokerages from there.So it's not exactly pocket change, but if it revives just one decent buyer lead per month, it really pays for itself in full.See, in this market right now, you cannot afford to let leads go cold or to leave leads from the past sit with no follow up speed to lead is everything and structurally never sleeps. Doesn't get distracted and it doesn't forget to follow up.So if you're too busy to Chase leads 24 hours a day, seven days a week, but still want to look like you are, structurally might be your new favorite teammate. No, it's not going to ask you for health insurance or commission splits.So if you want to check it out, just go to structurally.com and you can try it for free. I promise you won't be disappointed. All right guys, that is a wrap on this week's market update. Covered a lot.Rates ain't moving, housing numbers that make you squint, and a real estate economy that's basically being run by AI, corporate landlords, and possibly quantum light. Here's the bottom line. If you're in the game, whether that's buying, selling or helping others do both, you've got to stay informed.This market is not easy, but there is opportunity. Especially if you've got the right tools, right people, and maybe even a podcast or two to keep you in the know.So if you got any value out of today's episode, do me a favor. Share with a friend, leave a review, or just hit follow so you don't miss next week's wild ride. Until then, be good humans. Just keep grinding.Life is what you make it, so make it great. See you next time.