Texas Housing Trends: Mortgage Rate Insights for April 30th

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Howdy, howdy to all my real estate professionals out there, and welcome back to another episode of the Texas Real Estate and Finance Podcast Market Update for the week of April the 30th. So I am your forever host, Mike Mills, a North Texas mortgage banker with Geneva Financial, and I sit in front of this microphone a couple times a week and dump all my brain matter onto you. And I hope some of it's informative for you, but truly it's just therapeutic for me.

And it saves my wife hours of rambling from me as well. But when I'm not barking into the internet, I help your clients buy and refinance their homes. And with higher rates these days and loans getting harder and harder to qualify, you need a team of problem solvers on your side to make sure that your clients rave about you at the closing table.

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And that is what we do. So if you need a great partner to help grow your business and expand your referral network, give me a call. We can help you close your loans quickly and without incident and make sure that you get eight more referrals after that closing.

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And if you want to find new ways to reach your sphere, we can help with that too. So give me a call and I'll tell you how. Okay.

Personal commercial over now. So what are we discussing on today's episode? Well, first off, if you are watching this on YouTube, as you can see, my background is a little different today. I'm having some renovations done on my podcast studio.

So hopefully we'll have that all cleared up in the next week or so. But for now we're just operating inside the home office. But for those of you listening to the audio version, it's all the same to you.

So today, as always, we will get into the current state of interest rates and where they might be trending. I got a little hint for you. The Fed might actually be helping rates and not by cutting them.

And I'll tell you how. After that, we'll look at the current housing trends for the nation and right here in North Texas as well. I also have an update in the sits or Burnett case, more settlements were made and we've got a big approval coming from the judge.

And unfortunately these days, lawsuits are not limited to realtors only. Big law now has its eyes set on lenders, but guys, the industry is being attacked from all angles and I'll give you the details. And lastly, I'll update you on the moves from the self-proclaimed national MLS.

I'm referring of course to homes.com or more specifically their parent company, CoStar. Right now the table is being set. And as we move closer to the July date of change, the big boys are moving their pieces around the board and getting them in position to strike and they're flexing their money to prove it.

Stay tuned for that. And of course, one last favor before we get started. If you know anyone who might benefit from the information in today's episode, please share it with a friend.

Our numbers are growing on the little podcast that could, and you guys are the reason why. So help a crazy mortgage banker out and share this with your network. I want to help as many people as I can and you can help me reach that goal.

So like subscribe, comment, or share, or my new favorite made up acronym, LSCS, this thing to your network of real estate professionals. I would greatly appreciate it. All right, let's get onto the show.

So interest rates, where we always start. Well, according to Lance Lambert, founder of Resy Club, the average 30 year fixed mortgage rate is now right around 7.43. And the effective rate or kind of the average rate on all homes in the U S right now is right around 4%. So this is quite a big gap.

And this gap, of course, we need to close for the housing market to gain more inventory, having sellers willing to sell and more activities, basically buyers willing to buy. And Oh, by the way, if you want updates each week on the housing market, I highly recommend following Lance Lambert on Twitter. His Resy Club site is amazing at breaking down all of the nation's housing data.

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I get a lot of my information from here. He's a former guest of the podcast, so he's a great follow. So check him out.

Okay. So why are rates still so incredibly high, especially since we were promised that the Fed was going to cut rates four times this year. And we're over a quarter of the way through the year and absolutely nothing has happened.

Well, the two stats that you really need to pay attention to that will foreshadow where rates are headed is inflation and unemployment. And for anyone that doesn't know, the Fed has two mandates to promote maximum employment and stable prices. And lately we've had relatively low unemployment according to the headline data that is.

And inflation has come down quite a bit. But now as we get closer to the 2% target, it's starting to get a little bit sticky. And lately, inflation has actually started rising again.

So while unemployment is below 4%, which is the Fed stated target and also struggling to get inflation headed back towards 2%, the Fed is not going to cut rates at least until one of those things breaks. And my bet is you'll see unemployment rise above 4% before you see inflation start to come down enough, at least in a meaningful way to get Jerome Powell in the mindset of cutting rates again. And honestly, I do not believe inflation is going to be coming down anytime soon.

At least the inflation numbers that the Fed cares about, which is what we call core inflation and core inflation is the change in the costs of goods and services that do not include those from food and energy sectors. And now we have a new made up super core inflation that measures services, inflation, excluding food, energy, and housing. So why is inflation still sticky? Well, the costs and transportation services and car insurance premiums are a big component of this and have gone way up in the last several months.

As I'm sure many of you are personally experiencing if you're looking at your insurance bills lately, but in reality, until shelter and energy costs come down, which although they are stripped out technically from that core reading, they still impact the costs of almost everything else. So that 2% number is going to be really tough to get to anytime soon. Jobs, however, is where we are really starting to see some soft spots in the economy, and we could very well get to 4% unemployment sooner rather than later.

So you see the issue here is with the strength of the headline numbers, because most of the job gains that we've seen have been part-time employment or government employment. And we haven't really added a full-time job to the economy since August of 2023. So let's talk about some of these numbers.

So first let's look at initial jobless claims. So I've been talking about this for weeks that the job numbers seem to be odd and misleading from the BLS. They show a strong jobs market, but other numbers showed less strength.

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In fact, initial jobless claims for the past several weeks really hasn't moved at all. It's literally been the same number, and that is very, very weird. And people paying attention to this are really starting to ask questions.

So the jobless claims have been 212,000 for the last five of the six weeks, which is very, very strange. And this is measured by filings from unemployment insurance. So the question is, is how is this statistically possible? And when you look at the last nine weeks, there's only been very small variances because of holidays.

So Jim Bianco of Bianco Research, he stated that the U.S. is a $28 trillion economy. It has 160 million workers, and initial claims for unemployment insurance are state programs. And we have 50 states with 50 different rules, hundreds of offices, and 50 websites to file.

So weather, seasonality, holidays, and economic vibrations drive the number of people filing claims from week to week. And yet this measure is so incredibly stable over the last nine weeks that it doesn't even vary by 1,000 applicants a week. And just the number of applications incorrectly filled out every week should cause it to move and vary more than this.

So the fact that we have basically the same number of jobless claims for the last nine weeks is really, really strange and odd. Now, the Dallas Morning News recently ran an article about the disparity between full-time and part-time work. Now, in the article, they're focused on a statement from presidential candidate Robert Kennedy regarding his lack of faith in the government's reporting from the BLS, especially in regards to the job numbers.

Because from February of 2023 to February of 2024, this is the most recent data that's available, the net increase in part-time jobs exceeded the net increase in total jobs. Now, what's kind of funny in the article, because it was very much against this assertion, it is very much in support of the Biden administration. And they say not to focus on one time period for growth, although it is the most recent 12 months, but that you have to look at the last three or four years.

And the article also focuses on why people working more than one job is actually good for the economy. I don't know about you, but anybody out there having to work more than one job to make ends meet is not exactly in the greatest state when it comes to their financial needs. I mean, don't get me wrong.

There are some hustlers out there that just like to get after it. But for the most part, if you're having to work two jobs, it's because you're having to be able to pay your bills because one job isn't sufficient enough. And to me, that is not a good indication of a strong economy.

That's just a good indication of people having to work their butt off because everything's so damn expensive. All right. So a couple of facts from these job numbers.

Nearly a quarter of all new payroll jobs are government jobs, a quarter of them. And if we look more closely at the report, what we really find is that the total number of employed persons has fallen by nearly 400,000 jobs in four months. And that 1.8 million full time jobs have disappeared altogether over that same period.

And since August of 2023, total part time jobs has increased by 1.4 million. And during that same time period, full time jobs fell by more than 1.3 million. So the net job creation during that time period has all been part time jobs.

And over the past two months, in fact, the year over year measure of full time jobs has fallen into recessionary territory. Full time jobs were down year over year in both February and March. And over the past 50 years, anytime full time jobs fall year over year for two months in a row or more, the United States has always been in recession or about to enter a recession.

And right now we're on pace to have the worst start of the year for layoffs since 2009. As a matter of fact, layoff announcements in February hit their highest level for the month since the global financial crisis. And the total of almost 85,000 plan cuts showed an increase of 3% from January and 9% from the same month a year ago, with technology and finance companies at the forefront of these cuts.

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So from a historical perspective, this was the worst February since 2009, which saw 186,000 announcements as the worst of the financial crisis was seemingly coming to an end. Financial markets bottomed out the following month, paving the way for the longest economic expansion on record, lasting until the COVID pandemic in March of 2020. So what does this all mean? Well, it means that we're likely to get to that 4% unemployment number way before we get to the 2% inflation mark.

And with companies' earnings coming out later this week and next, even with many of them beating quote, expectations, which of course, when you set expectations very low and you beat them, then that's always good news to the shareholders because we don't want to tell the shareholders that we missed expectations. But as you see these revenues reported, you're also going to see job layoffs reported as well, because companies have to show their stockholders that despite revenues being down, they're still going to maintain profitability by laying off employees. So this is expected to get worse before it gets better.

And by the way, this week is going to be a massive week for jobs data as it always is. However, considering where the 10-year treasury yield is right now, this week's data will be more important than even in previous months. So if something's going to break, it might happen this week.

So stay tuned. Oh, and one last note on the rates as well when it comes to the Fed. So if you didn't know, the biggest reason why mortgage rates were down during the last few years had less to do with the fact that the Fed funds rate level was way down and way more to do with the fact that the Fed was buying an immense amount of mortgage-backed securities during that time.

And this was artificially keeping rates low. In fact, since the middle of 2022, the Fed has been reducing its bond holdings at a clip of $95 billion per month after raising their balance sheet to over $9 trillion leading up to that. But recently, the Fed has hinted at the fact that before they cut rates, we might see them actually start to taper off their selling of bonds and maybe even become a net buyer of bonds again.

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Now, this would be a great news for rates as it would drive the prices of those bonds up and therefore bring interest rates down. So again, this is just something to keep an eye on to get an idea of where mortgage rates might be headed for the rest of this year. As it looks right now, we're probably in a higher for longer situation when it comes to interest rates overall, because I don't see the Fed making any significant cuts.

Probably not this year. We might get one, but you could still see mortgage rates come down slightly because if the Fed decides to start buying bonds again, or at least for sure slowing it down, then mortgage rates are going to be in a much better position as we head into the rest of the year. Okay.

So now let's look at some national and local housing numbers. So last week, the weekly inventory changed from April 19th to the 26th. We saw inventory rise from 543,000 new listings to 556,000 new listings.

Now to put it in context, the all-time inventory bottom for a weekly number was 240,000 back in 2022. And the inventory peak was in 2023 at 569,000. So we're starting to get close to that peak.

But just to give you an idea on where we were for weekly listings back in 2015, before everything hit the fan, there were about a million new listings coming onto the market this time in 2015. Now good news is as we head into the spring, pending home sales are up. So we're getting more listings and we're getting more sales, which is always a good thing.

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Signed contracts for the month of March, they were up 3.4% from 1.6% back in February. And this trend in existing home sales is actually increasing. March's number is actually the strongest number that we've seen in 13 months.

So this is all good news. And with inventory going up, this is helping an increase in sales because now there's more homes available for buyers to choose from. And now just to reiterate the point about supply always being a constant issue in this market that we've had, and people talking about the market crashing and all this supply hitting the market.

Let me give you an idea of where we stand on foreclosures right now. So CoreLogic, who measures the loan performance of these existing mortgages, shows that the people with 30 days delinquent, so people that are currently 30 days delinquent on their mortgage, is at about 2.8%. And this is unchanged from the previous month. And people that are 90 days delinquent are only at 0.9%, which is actually down from 1% from the previous month.

And those actually in foreclosure, so those people that are actually going through the foreclosure process of houses that could hit the market soon, well, that's only 0.3%. And this is unchanged from the previous month. And oh, by the way, this is record lows. So there is not a bunch of people out there getting ready to foreclose on their home.

And in actuality, there's not even that many people that are actually close to foreclosing on their homes. So there's always going to be some, and that number can fluctuate. And when you see headlines talk about how foreclosures are way up, typically they're referring to where they were.

And when they're at historic lows, being way up even by 1% or 2% is not going to move the needle at all. Now, some bad news for the economy, but maybe good news for interest rates is that GDP actually came in quite a bit lower than people were expecting recently. They were thinking that it was going to be at about 2.5% and it was only at 1.6%. But our government debt is way up and consumer debt is way up.

So even though there is still strong spending, to some extent, we are spending with debt. The government is spending with your taxpayer debt and consumers are spending with credit card debt. And to put this in perspective a little bit, first quarter numbers do typically come in lower in more cases than expected because they're right after a holiday and there's usually a slowdown in spending.

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But the problem with this GDP report is that PCE inflation, which is part of the GDP, when it gives a quarterly measure, it actually came in at 3.1%. And core PCE came in at 3.7. And the market was actually looking for 3.4. So this caused the bond market to adjust and bond prices to fall, which caused interest rates to go up. And this is why on Thursday last week, bonds just got absolutely murdered. Now, the one thing that gets missed in all this is whether you're talking about job numbers, GDP numbers, or even inflation numbers, you often see that there's lots of revisions that come after these initial headline numbers are reported.

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And typically lately, these revisions have been in the negative, meaning that GDP has been revised down, job numbers have been revised down, and inflation numbers, in some cases, have been revised up. And oh, by the way, this isn't good for the economy at all. Because when you have high inflation and low spending, which is what we're headed into, we get into the world of stagflation.

And I'm not going to go into what stagflation is today. I'm going to save this for next week, but it's not good. And this is what we experienced in the 70s when we had 20% interest rates.

And it looks like as current numbers, if they continue on this trend, we are going to be in a place where we are dealing with stagflation by the end of this year. I don't know what that means ultimately for interest rates, but overall, that's kind of a worst case scenario when it comes to the economy. No spending, no growth, high costs.

That's bad. All right. So let's look at specifically with the Dallas-Fort Worth market.

So here in Dallas-Fort Worth, in a metro area of Dallas-Fort Worth, Arlington, sales were actually up from 6,800 in February to 8,000 in March. So it was quite a big increase from February to March. The average sale price increased to 492,000 from the previous 474,000 back in February.

A lot of times when you see this average sale price goes up, it has more to do not necessarily with the price of homes or the cost of homes. It has a lot more to do with the mix of sales. And right now the mix of sales is concentrated between 300 and $700,000.

There's not a ton of homes under 300,000 and the homes over 700,000 aren't moving at the same click because jumbo rates are so incredibly expensive. There's a lot of cash buyers that are happening in the higher price points, but you're not seeing a ton of movement in that market right this minute. And last month, active listings went from 21,000 in February to 22,000 in March.

So active listings are increasing slightly, which is helping with the sales numbers. Now months on inventory, however, did go up slightly as well from 2.76 in February to 2.97 in March. So at almost three months, but that's still well below a healthy five to seven months needed to really balance out the market between buyers and sellers.

So we're not even really halfway there yet, which is why you're still seeing home prices continue to rise. Because again, and I've said this, I'm a broken record on this stuff. We still don't have enough inventory and that's just very much the bottom line.

So in short, in Dallas and the rest of the country, inventory is still low, but it's increasing. Sales are down from last year, but improving as we head into the spring and home prices, however, continue to rise. So again, get it while you can, because as soon as rates drop, which I think they will to some extent later this year, not dramatically, I think you'll see a small change towards the end of the year, but it's going to be just enough to stir people who've been waiting on the sidelines to buy with these high rates.

And you're going to see prices start to go up because at least right now, we still do not have enough homes for sale to meet the current demand. And oh, by the way, home starts are way underpacing household formations by almost a million. And that's not good news for the future either, at least as it relates to home prices.

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Okay. Next up, we couldn't do a market update without talking about lawsuits. And there's been a good amount of news regarding all the lawsuits.

Okay. So earlier this week, Judge Stephen Boe, who is overseeing the Sitz-Burnett case and several other related commission cases, he preliminarily approved the settlements that were issued, which are expected to go into effect in mid-July. Now the Department of Justice has also taken an interest in the Sitz-Burnett case and may attempt to convince Judge Boe to change the terms of the settlement.

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The DOJ could also file charges separately to prevent any display of buyer-agent commissions on any platform. So the agents out there thinking that maybe if they couldn't put it on the MLS or they couldn't put it in the listing description, might list it on their website. Well, the Department of Justice has that in mind as well, and they may prevent this from them putting it anywhere.

And in July, all fields displaying broker commissions on the MLS are going to be eliminated. And there is a blanket ban on the requirement that agents subscribe to the MLSs in order to offer or accept compensation for their work. So this is where you start to see the concern for the future of the local MLSs and where that comes into play.

And with agents not having to be members of the MLSs to accept compensation, this gives room for a national MLS to step up and take market share. We're going to talk about that in a minute. Now, the settlement agreement also mandates that the MLS participants working with buyers must enter into written buyer-broker agreement before they show them their first house.

Now, this is the piece of the settlement that I think has gone way overlooked. Not because it hasn't always been done one way or another, but because agents are going to have to be very clear on their compensation when it comes to buyers. And in most cases, at least for the foreseeable future, sellers will probably still be willing to pay buyers agents because right now it's in their best interest to help them get their home sold.

But some won't. And as those start to trickle in, buyers agents are going to have to really make sure that their clients know and understand what and how much they're paying for for their service. Because this settlement says that your agreement for compensation has to be determined before you show them the first house, and that number can't change.

So when you get to closing and it comes time to collect, you want to make sure that you've explained all this so there isn't a big to-do between you and your buyers. And this is going to take a lot of getting used to for some agents out there. But please understand, my dear realtor friends, you are not alone in this lawsuit-happy industry that we're all apparently in.

Earlier this month, UWM, which is United Wholesale Mortgage, one of the largest wholesale lenders in the country, became the target of a class action-seeking lawsuit alleging that it orchestrated a scheme with mortgage brokers to apply excess fees and costs to borrowers. Now, of course, the wholesale lender calls these accusations a complete sham. But the plaintiffs claim that they hired independent mortgage brokers believing that the wholesale channel was the best option for getting affordable mortgage rates because these professionals can shop around.

And this is a little bit of a different model from loan officers employed by retail lenders like myself. Never mind that as retail lenders, we have 20 different investors that aggregate the best interest rates on one platform versus having to go out to one or two or three, but that's another story for another day. Now, a spokesperson said, as alleged in our filing, that UWM has systematically and intentionally corrupted the wholesale mortgage channel through fraudulent practices to line its own pockets and those of its senior executives, including Mr. Ishiba, at the expense of everyday Americans.

This is from John Zack, an attorney from the plaintiffs. And he said this in a prepared statement. He also said homebuyers are legally and morally entitled to receive honest, unconflicted assistance from the brokers that they hire to help them secure the lowest prices for a loan.

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And UWM terms this process on its head by corrupting brokers and tricking homebuyers into paying billions of dollars more in costs and fees. They're really using some big superlatives with these statements. Now, in response, a spokesperson from UWM said that the real party behind it, the lawsuit that is, is a huge hedge fund named Hunterbrook and lawyers concealed the hedge funds involvement.

UWM also stated that Hunterbrook's business model is to sensationalize public information to manipulate the stock market, thereby enriching their wealthy funders at the expense of regular investors, many of whom are hardworking UWM employees. Now, just to be clear, I'm not here to champion the brokers of the world. I have my own issues with how brokers do their thing versus how retail lenders.

There's a space for all of us in this world and there are benefits and drawbacks to each one. But in this particular case, again, this sounds like some big money poking its head into the real estate industry for their own benefit. Because when you tell people, average Americans, that they can get money by suing somebody else and you call them and you email them and you solicit them, you're going to find enough people that are willing to be a part of class action lawsuits like this.

Now, could you argue that there's a few questionable practices regarding how UWM required some of their participating brokers to only use them and not Rocket or other wholesalers? Yes, you could make that argument. But this isn't that different from most industries because you have suppliers that channel their distributors into their own network and limit their ability to use other suppliers. They have many contracts that work out this way across all different industries.

So this isn't that an unusual practice. Now, it isn't ideal in the way of giving customers all their options. But again, this is how it's done in many industries across the globe.

So it isn't that unusual. But you have the legal system using particular rules to target one particular industry and go after them. And that's what's happening here.

And to add a little cherry on top this week, the Department of Justice charged a top loan officer in New York with mortgage fraud. Now, the details of the case are still kind of being worked out. And it looks like that this guy might end up settling.

But again, just another example that if you are in real estate these days, there are eyes trained on you at all times. And they are very much paying attention. So don't do anything stupid.

And if you did stupid things in the past, you better be aware because they may be coming after you. Now, I think our industry as a whole is filled with great people who have great intentions of helping customers. And there are always going to be a few bad apples that spoil the bunch.

But in the aggregate, the real estate industry is just hardworking professionals trying to support their families and take care of their clients. And I see this every single day. But right now, the media is villainizing the entire industry as a bunch of money-grubbing, commission-chasing people and setting it up for corporate takeover, which is what we're starting to deal with.

And speaking of corporate takeover, last but not least today, I wanted to check in on our favorite big money player in the real estate industry moving rapidly into our space. And that is CoStar. CoStar is the billion-dollar company and owner of Apartments.com, LoopNet, which is a commercial real estate site, BizBuySell, which sells small businesses, and our new favorite, Homes.com. Well, they had some great news this week.

CoStar reported a strong first quarter of 2024 with its revenue at $656 million, marking a 12% increase from the $584 million figure it posted in the first quarter of 2023. They also celebrated the successful launch and monetization of Homes.com memberships on February 11th. Now, in the first quarter, the sales team for Homes.com generated nearly $40 million in new bookings.

In March, Homes.com reached 156 million monthly unique visitors, according to Google Analytics, fueling the fight for the listing portal supremacy between Homes.com and Zillow. A representative from Homes.com stated that with recent legal settlements in the real estate industry, we believe that the portals that rely on lead diversion model could become stressed very soon, referring to Zillow, of course. It went on to say that we're increasingly confident in our ability to build out the number one residential real estate marketplace in terms of traffic, revenue, and profitability in years to come.

Translation, national MLS. And just for a little intel right now, if you want to be featured as a premium agent that'll be charging you $400 a month if you pay for the full year, or $450 a month if you're a month-to-month subscriber, here's some of the features that you get. All of your active listings are upgraded to what they call silver.

So they're taking active listings and upgrading them because you're paying for the service of your listings. That sounds like the website is steering people to your listings because you're paying for it. Hmm, interesting.

Your listings are also sorted above basic listings. So they're upgraded a little bit higher. Again, you are paying for the website to steer consumers to your listings first.

Notice the word I keep using here? Interesting. Your listings are also being targeted to high intent consumers because they can assess by person's behavior on their website who's actually just browsing properties and who actually has an intent to buy. And your listings will be featured to those individuals having intent to buy.

So again, the website, if you pay them $400 a month, will steer consumers to your listings in that area. Interesting. You get an enhanced search placard featuring your photo.

Your listings will be placed on the respective neighborhood pages, increasing your listings reach and exposure. Steering again. Your listings will be placed on the respective school pages, increasing your listings reach and exposure.

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Steering. And there'll be no other competing properties on your listing. Steering.

There's agent benefits. You get brand retargeting ads. Your agent profile sorts through the top of the agent directory.

You're featured on the homepage for buyers and sellers who are not connected with an agent. There's an agent specializing in an area on neighborhood schools and detail pages, et cetera, et cetera. So if you pay $400 a month, you're going to get eyeballs on your listings.

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But if you mentioned that you want to offer buyers compensation on your listing to get buyers' agents to bring their prospective buyers to your listing, well, that my friend is against the law. And now we have class action lawsuits that are going to prevent you from that. However, if you want to pay a big company $400 a month to feature your listings and drive consumers to that, that's perfectly fine.

Pay the big guy, not the little guy. So that's where we are right now. These guys are coming for your business.

So please pay attention and get to know them because they're looking like it's going to be Zillow and homes.com that are going to be fighting it out for the nation's new number one listing service in the country. They're going to be your real estate masters from here on out because at this point, they're very close to slaying the NAR dragon and soon to follow the local MLSs. Welcome to our new reality.

Like I've said before, though, changes mean opportunity. So in this market, now that you understand what's coming, you have to find your opportunity. So keep looking and keep grinding.

All right, guys, that's all for today. I appreciate everybody that stuck around with me to the end. We are focusing a lot on where this market's headed when it comes to threats and opportunities that are approaching it.

So please tune in every day to learn a little bit more and more about this. I'm going to be featuring a story soon about institutional investors, especially in the Dallas Fort Worth area and how they're impacting home sales. So stay tuned next week for that.

I really appreciate you guys hanging with me each week. I enjoy doing this. I hope you enjoy listening to it.

And please give me your feedback. I really appreciate it. Reach out with questions.

If you have clients that need any help, I'd love to help those as well. So I hope you guys have a great week. Come back and see us on Thursday with another interview episode that we'll be featuring this week.

Until then, be great humans. Just keep grinding because the world is what you make it. So make it great.

See you later.